AMOC Alerts Don't Stick (Wunsch Note) – Watt Watt?

from masterresource

Robert Bradley Jr.

ed. notes: Recently peer-reviewed articles nature (discussed here) Again, this speculative “fat tail” assumption is reduced to size. The authors concluded: “Based on the relationships identified here and observation-based observation-based relationship estimates, from the reanalysis products, aerial heat fluxes in the North Atlantic Ocean were averaging at 26.5°N from 1963 to 2017. It has not diminished the substantial variability in all latitudes.”

Climate Alert is the game name for the government-led climate industrial complex to keep taxpayer grants to wind, solar and seek battery rentals. Nature is the best and fragile, and the game is to throw assumptions at the wall to see what might stick to it. Mainstream media also long for fearful situations.

A perennial fear is a potential collapse of a vital current system called the Atlantic Mesopotamia Closing (AMOC). Some scientists are “outside” and the chances of predicting collapse are getting greater, but the consensus is tilted in the opposite way. [1]

Forty-four scientists, including Michael “Climategate” Mann, published an open letter with ominous influence. The letter states: “The latest research since the last IPCC report shows that the IPCC underestimates this risk and that the passage of this turning point is a serious possibility in the coming decades.” Mission with Action Calls Close:

Recognizing that adapting to such a severe climate disaster is not a viable option, we urge the Nordic Council of Ministers (a) to initiate such a significant risk assessment of Nordic countries and (b) to take measures to reduce such risk as much as possible Maybe. This could involve leveraging the strong international status of Nordic countries to increase the urgency and pressure on global efforts to reduce emissions as soon as possible to stay close to the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement.

The media loves it. “The major Atlantic currents may soon collapse, 'affecting the entire world for centuries,' leading climate scientists warned,” Sascha Pare wrote in LiveScience. Bob Henson asked during a climate link at Yale University: “Why should you worry about the collapse of the Atlantic conveyor belt?”

Carl Wunsch refutes

Is there a risk of collapse of the main mechanisms of North Atlantic heat transport, ushering in the cold of record, a real threat? As mentioned in the letters above, have they been “bigly underestimated”? In this case, a good second opinion is needed, and Carl Wunsch of MIT is about the same.

I emailed Professor Wunsch via query:

Many years ago Dick Lindzen gave me your address asking about fears about the atlantic meridian overturning cycle. You were suspicious at that time.

This alert was pending today and I wonder if you have some ideas for this post (below) sharing LinkedIn where the debate is taking place.

For many reasons, we should cut climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible, weaken an ocean current system called Atlantic meridian capsulation, or AMOC does rank high. Over the past few years, several key scientific papers have brought this long-term permanent climate focus back to the front burner. It is hard to exaggerate how universal and catastrophic the effect it is, and if the conveyor is about to collapse, this may begin in the coming decades, if new works begin with the goal.

He replied:

I know the fuss about AMOC. Indeed, I co-wrote a paper not long ago (I have attached it). This is a bit technical.

But to clarify: I am not *climate skeptic, and I think the threat of major climate change is very real and very worrying. In this case one might argue that elements such as the behavior of AMOC are shocking and may lead to actual actual political and scientific/engineering advancements and preventive measures.

What I became paradoxical is that specific science is misinterpreted and misunderstood. For those who want a simple explanation of a very complex system, it has become a famous story to use AMOC on and off as an explanation of major past and future changes. [Wallace] Brock [here] His advocacy for “conveyor belts” gives the world a great service, which makes people think they understand a system that doesn’t look like his pictures (but memorable graphics).

There are many issues related to AMOC fuss. Among them, it is important to use numerical models that produce ocean cycles far from what we actually observe. How should people take their “predictions” seriously? It is a very worrying fact that climate can change dramatically from what has been known in the past few hundred years. Does this mean that the AMOC story in the media is correct?

Climate is a global phenomenon. Consider a hypothetical situation: suddenly turning the North Atlantic Ocean to all lands. Zero AMOC; removes the main current system. How to adjust the climate system? Currently, the Earth is approaching thermal equilibrium (radiation transmitted from the sun is almost equal to radiation to space, while excessive excess in the outward direction is a global warming phenomenon). Physics shows that the system will adapt to the removal of the North Atlantic by eventually reestablishing the global offshore equilibrium.

How did this happen? Change the cloud? Ocean cycle changes? Change the distribution of the ice sheet? Changes in atmospheric circulation? worldwide. How long does it take (decades, centuries)? What will the climate look like during the transition period? We do not have numerical models with proof skills to answer such questions. However, it can be bad. If this happens, inhibition of AMOC can cause exactly the same global problems as the additional complications of the North Atlantic cycle itself.

Isn't it worth taking some precautions? If an electrician tells me that existing wiring could cause a fire, it is an insurance issue and I will reconnect my house (not that a fire will happen; only we know it can).

Comment

We live when climate scientists don’t want to be labeled as skeptics or rejections, but honest scientists are still weighing the responsibility of improper shock. (Note the beginning and end of Wunsch replay.)

Also note that the deep ecological concept of optimal, stable, fragile climate is the default idea of ​​so many natural scientists. Human thoughts about climate impacts may be positive, and even the idea of ​​the benefits of “fat tail” (such as canceling a series of volcanoes or natural global cooling) is not part of the analysis.

[1] The Atlantic Mesopotamia Cycle (AMOC) describes flow from north to south to south to north to north to north to north. This cycle creates warmth around the world and brings essential nutrients to marine life.

The question is whether the (very slow) process slows down due to anthropogenic warming of the water, which will cause drought in South Africa while sea levels rise in the eastern U.S.

Source: What is the Atlantic Mechanical Flip Cycle (AMOC)?

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