No one knows
Paul Homewood
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https://www.neso.energy/publications/clean-power-2030
Yesterday, I discussed the possibility of Orsted's exit from Hornsea 4, which is part of their layoffs. As Vattenfall has objected to joining future CFD auctions, there is now a huge gap between Miliband's 2030 plan and reality.
As NESO’s Clean Energy 2030 shows, we need to increase offshore wind from 14.7 gw to 50.6 gw in 2030:
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https://www.neso.energy/publications/clean-power-2030
Assuming that ORSTED does withdraw from Hornsea 4, about 12 GW of newly constructed offshore wind energy already has CFD on the stream. This brings us to about 27 gw.
East Anglia 2, along with Hornsea 4, won the contract at last year's AR6 CFD auction with the goal of 2028/29. So if by 2030, this year is not ready, if the project is not ready.
But, more importantly, will we find anyone in the next five years ready to build another 23 GW?
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