Climate errors that we can't afford – Watt?

Vijay Jayaraj

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is mainly portrayed as the main culprit, driving global warming. For decades, this misunderstanding has guided international policy, prompting ambitious goals to reduce CO₂ Emissions and drives the shift from reliable and affordable energy sources such as coal, oil and gas to problematic wind and solar sources.

However, this theory ignores important factors that affect the Earth's climate system, including the role of clouds – the role of clouds, which are still severely underestimated.

The latest work of physicists WA VAN WIJNGAARDEN and WILLIAM HAFFER challenged this prevalent paradigm: their new paper, Radiation Transmission in the Cloud, suggests that clouds affect atmospheric temperature more than CO₂ Because they have a greater impact on the comparison of solar energy entering the Earth's atmosphere and escaping to outer space.

The impact of cloud cover

The clouds simultaneously reflect incoming sunlight back into space (cooling the earth) and capture outward heat (warming the earth). This dual nature makes the cloud make our climate system both powerful and confusing players. The net effect of clouds on climate is the balance between these opposite effects and is therefore a core component of the Earth’s energy budget.

The latest research by Van Wijngaarden and Happ, titled “Radiation Transport in the Cloud,” delves into this complexity in depth. The 2025 paper says that the radiation effect of clouds can easily eliminate or amplify the impact of CO₂. The researchers stressed that the impact of clouds on Earth's radiation budget is more pronounced than greenhouse gases such as Co₂.

For example, their research suggests that a modest decline in low cloud cover may significantly increase solar heating on the Earth's surface. By comparison, twice as much in the atmosphere₂ The concentration reduces radiation by only 1%:”The instantaneous increase in concentration, increasing the concentration by 100%, only reduces the radiation to the space by about 1%. To increase the Earth's solar heating by a few%, low cloud cover only needs to be reduced by a few%. ”

Compared with CO₂ fluctuation. Most state-of-the-art climate models are still in their infancy. If we want to input useful to climate models, we need to more accurately measure the properties of clouds and their effects on the electromagnetic composition of solar radiation.

Impact on energy policy and reliability

Current strategies assume direct and dominant links between CO₂ Emissions and global temperatures to demonstrate active “decarbonization” efforts and increased use of solar and wind energy.

However, solar energy and wind are intermittent in nature, making them unreliable and very expensive, an integral part of the grid. The infrastructure required to support these technologies requires substantial upfront investment, higher operating costs and increased consumer utility bills.

In the absence of sufficient backup solutions, power outages, energy shortages and price peaks are becoming increasingly common. This trend disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, exacerbating energy poverty and hindering economic development.

The main reason for using solar and wind is that they respond to global warming by reducing CO₂ Emissions from burning fossil fuels. If slight changes in cloud cover actually flood the impact of CO₂and then the sensitivity of climate to greenhouse gases is significantly overestimated. This has a profound impact on policy.

Attributing global warming primarily to the use of fossil fuel emissions is an oversimplification. at the same time₂ There is no doubt that it has a warming effect, it is relatively modest and beneficial, mainly due to the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures. On the other hand, clouds have multifaceted interactions and feedback, representing a key and insufficient component of this puzzle.

Van Wijngaarden's findings and larger trends highlight a broader problem in climate science: the tendency to oversimplify complex systems for political expediency. As the global energy landscape continues to evolve, decisions based on sound science rather than political dogma must be made.

It’s time to reevaluate our approach to climate science and energy policy. These bets are too high to continue the path of disruptive policy based on false analyses. We must prioritize reliable, affordable energy and grid stability rather than useless reductions in harmless gas emissions.

Click here to access the entire radiation transmission in cloud paper.

The comment was originally Bizpac Review February 10, 2025.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Assistant company₂ allianceArlington, Virginia. he He holds a Master of Environmental Science from the University of East Anglia and a Bachelor of Science in Energy Management from Robert Gordon University in the UK, and a Bachelor of Engineering from Anna University in India.

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