Roger Caiazza
This is another example of a jurisdiction desperately trying to actively spin their troubled Zero-Zero transition work.
The New York State Energy Research and Development Bureau (NYSERDA) plays an important role in the implementation of the Climate Act. They published the “Featured Story” of “Take You to the Future of Clean Energy in New York”. The term “propaganda” means the dissemination of information that promotes a particular agenda, often prejudiced or misleading. The description perfectly describes the story of clean energy growth on February 11 “EVS hit record numbers in both New York and the United States.”
By 2050 to 2030, 40% of greenhouse gases were reduced, and the mission required that 70% of electricity would be derived from renewable energy by 2030. The Climate Action Commission (CAC) is responsible for preparing an overview of how to “achieve the state’s bold clean energy and achieve the state’s scope plan climate agenda.” After a year of review, the scope is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2022. Since then, the state has been trying to implement scoped planning recommendations through regulations, litigation and legislation.
This article compares the numbers in “New York State and the United States' EV hit record numbers” and the numbers in the range plan.
New York State Electric Vehicle Number
According to this reference, Nyserda gives the following New York figures:
In 2024, New York saw 90,221 new EV registrations, and in early 2025, the total number of EV drivers exceeded 271,000. The total EV registrations in 2023 totaled 78,950, which means that in 2024, New York's electric vehicles adopted a 14.3% status.
Of the new electric vehicles registered in New York State, 54,664 battery electric models and 35,557 are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles[2]. Battery-electric electric vehicles operate completely on electricity, while plug-in hybrids have an all-electric range of about 20 to 50 miles and are exhausted by gasoline-burned internal combustion engines once the battery is exhausted.
Range Electric Vehicle Number
The scope plan is a blueprint for New York to comply with the Climate Act. Nyerda hired a contractor who developed a control strategy, estimated costs and reduced estimated costs and emissions lists that turned the crank and formed a “plan” for three decarbonization scenarios in New York. A “plan” to meet the ideal climate bill schedule. Feasibility, accountability, and transparency are not effective descriptions of the results.
After a small thing, I found the expected electric car data. Table 1 lists the estimated 2024 EV sales for these three scenarios compared to the observed sales. Scenario 1 (strategic use of low-carbon fuels) is the most realistic projection, and the other two (the transition from combustion accelerated and 85% reduction) are based on fantasy. For our purposes, please note that battery-electric vehicles are selling 10% lower than expected, while hybrid vehicles sell plug-ins 34% lower than last year's scenario 1.
Table 1: 2024 NY EV Sales Comparison Scope with Observed Sales
Strategic use of relatively low-carbon fuels over time suggests that 2023 is only in the year when battery electric sales have been observed exceeding forecasts. Plug-in hybrid car sales surpassed forecasts in just the first year.
Table 2: Electric Vehicle Sales Comparative Low Carbon Fuel Projection vs. Observed Sales
The trend is shown in Figure 1. Scope of planned modeling projects will increase battery power sales dramatically in the future. The modeling also predicts that plug-in hybrid sales will peak in 2026 before going bankrupt.
Figure 1: Electric Vehicle Sales Comparison of Low Carbon Fuel Projection vs. Observed Sales
discuss
Trying to estimate how changes in energy use and fuels affect the impact of each sector in the implementation of the Climate Act sponsored by Nyserda is a huge effort. Completely documenting the reduction strategies, the additional effort required for expected emission changes, and the cost of each strategy undoubtedly resulted in a decision not to provide sufficient information for meaningful stakeholder reviews. Conveniently, the lack of transparency means that stakeholders have difficulty asking embarrassing questions. However, New York State is proposing a complete shift in all aspects of the national energy system at a cost of more than a trillion dollars, so I think the lack of comprehensive documentation is unacceptable.
Trying to verify the scope plan prediction of observations is difficult. Given these results, confusion may be intentional. In 2024, battery-electric vehicle sales will be 10% less than expected. Given that the projection was conducted three years ago, this is not a good result. Model projects will grow rapidly in 2026 and beyond. Note that plug-in hybrids aren't enough to make New York's zero emission attractive, so sales will peak and end modeling projects.
The problem with my modeling result is that they are so convenient. I firmly believe that these predictions have just been interpolated between the Climate Act objectives and current conditions to quantify vehicle sales. There is no record of reasons for driving sales. Why do the country expect electric vehicle sales to increase as expected expectations increase?
Until Trump suspended the program, there was a federal mandate that said all vehicles sold on a specific date would be electric. If the public does not thank you, all authorizations and incentives to the manufacturer will be futile. In this case, there is no evidence that demand for electric vehicles is expected to increase, and the results show that Ford lost $5.1 billion in 2024 and its electric vehicle business lost $4.7 billion. Common sense says the expected sales trajectory is wishful thinking.
in conclusion
New York electric vehicle sales do not meet the forecasts necessary to comply with the Climate Act. Nyserda's report describing “record sales” should not bother mentioning this fact. The lack of evidence that the EV transport sector emission reduction plan will work, another reason New York State needs to suspend the process and determine whether the plan is feasible. I suspect this is a common problem with all similar initiatives. No cheerful claims for record sales can cover up the facts for longer.
Roger Caiazza blogs on New York's energy and environmental issues of pragmatic environmentalists. This represents his opinion, not his former employer or any other company he contacted with.
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