Error, Earth.com, cocoa production is not “under extreme climate pressures”, it is improving – Watt has it?

From the climateRealism

By H. Sterling Burnett

Earth.com published a story claiming that climate change is causing cocoa production to fall in West and Central Africa. This is wrong. Data show that cocoa production has increased rather than decreased over the past few decades. Part of the reason is that growth conditions for these areas and carbon dioxide fertilization have improved.

In the story of Earth.com, “cocoa production in Africa is under extreme climate pressure,” author Andrei Ionescu references a study published in agriculture and forest meteorology, which Research claims climate change possible Production in West and Central Africa fell by 50%, and the region accounts for 70% of global cocoa production. Ionescu further claims: “Climate change has basically affected cocoa production in West and Central Africa.” The problem is that data falsify this claim and predicts worst-case predictions based on flawed climate models.

Climate Realism At a glance, climate has written several times about the admissions of climate modelers, i.e., the model flows to HOT. Therefore, predictions that affect the impact of the model and its high emission scenarios cannot be believed. Neither scientific research nor public policy should be based on assumptions and predictions that are known to have fatal flaws.

In addition, data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization show that, like crops everywhere, cocoa production varies from year to year. However, cocoa production in West and Central Africa has increased overall in recent times of mild climate change, with ups and downs on the age group.

This study focuses especially on cocoa production in Cameroon, Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire), Ghana and Nigeria. FAO data from these countries suggest that since 1990:

• In Cameroon, cocoa bean production has increased by more than 157%.
• On like Goose Coast (Coke Island), cocoa bean production has increased by more than 194% (almost doubled and set a new record in 2023);
• In Ghana, cocoa bean production is slightly above 122%.
• In Nigeria, cocoa bean production has increased by nearly 17%.

Over the past three decades, each of these countries has experienced years of record-breaking creative output. (See the picture below).

With these facts in mind, there is no evidence that climate change puts cocoa production at extreme pressure, except for the imagination of Earth.com's Ionescu.

Global carbon dioxide has led to general greening of the earth and has significantly improved crop yields. There are good reasons to believe that rising carbon dioxide concentrations will also significantly promote cocoa production in West and Central Africa. Beyond climate model predictions, botany, agronomics or climatology have no good reason, because thinking about the growth conditions in the region will get worse.

Even the researchers themselves point out that under the various circumstances they predict, some areas in the region may see small or no changes in future yields, others may see increased production, while others Reduced. generally,”[r]ESULT from the mixed-effects model shows the effect of climate variability on all GCMs for all GCMS [general circulation models]) is not very powerful, but this effect depends on the selected climate scenario. ”

In fact, the authors of the study honestly acknowledge that their findings are very uncertain due to many factors. These limiting factors include spatial scales of climate models, lack of data availability, insufficient understanding of potential land use changes, unknown interannual climate change, and more. Furthermore, they acknowledge that the cocoa simulation model they used “has not been validated in the context of climate change or the rise of carbon dioxide”.

The story of Ionescu's Earth.com is completely without these important admissions, which may lead to people's belief that predictions are more certain than they are actually.

Deforestation, which thrives due to rapid expansion into tropical forests and land transformations, may also lead to a decline in cocoa yields, Ionescu noted. This may be true, when land is converted into crops or urban expansion, other forest-dependent nuts and fruits occur elsewhere, but it has nothing to do with climate change.

Finally, Earth.com’s story aspires to stir up alarming speculation, driving catastrophic climate change narratives and lacking detailed analysis. The author shows no evidence of his careful and comprehensive citation of the report. There is also no evidence in the story that the author examined any real-world data before asserting that climate change is harming and threatening cocoa production. This is the hasty news you cut it down.

H. Sterling Burnett

Dr. H. Sterling Burnett is the director of the Arthur B. Robinson Centre for Climate and Environmental Policy and the Executive Editor of Environmental and Climate News. In addition to the Arthur B. Robinson Center, which guides the Heartland Institute’s Climate and Environmental Policy Center, Burnett puts Environment and Climate News together, editor of Heartland’s Climate Change weekly emails and Environmental and Climate News The host of newspaper.

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