Earth.com published a story claiming that climate change is causing cocoa production to fall in West and Central Africa. This is wrong. [emphasis, links added]
Data show that cocoa production has increased rather than decreased over the past few decades. Part of this is in these areas and under improved growth conditions of carbon dioxide fertilization.
In the story of Earth.com, “cocoa production in Africa is under extreme climate pressure,” author Andrei Ionescu references a study published in agriculture and forest meteorology, which Research claims climate change possible Production in West and Central Africa fell by 50%, and the region accounts for 70% of global cocoa production.
Ionescu further declared: “Climate change has basically affected cocoa production in West and Central Africa.”
The problem is that the data falsify this claim and predicts worst-case predictions based on flawed climate models.
Climate Realism It is clear at a glance that climate has been written several times, and it was previously about the admission of climate modelers, i.e. the model is too hot.
Therefore, predictions that depend on the impact of the model and its high emission scheme cannot be trusted. Neither scientific research nor public policy should be based on assumptions and predictions that are known to have fatal flaws.
In addition, data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization show that cocoa production changes every year, like crops everywhere.
However, in recent periods of moderate climate change, considering the ups and downs of the inter-year period, Cocoa production in West and Central Africa has increased overall.
This study focuses especially on cocoa production in Cameroon, Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire), Ghana and Nigeria.
FAO data from these countries suggest that since 1990:
- In Cameroon, cocoa production has increased by more than 157%.
- On like Gospel Coast (Koco Coffee), cocoa production has increased by more than 194% (almost doubled, setting a new record in 2023);
- In Ghana, cocoa production has increased by only over 122%.
- In Nigeria, cocoa bean production has increased by nearly 17%.
Over the past three decades, each of these countries has experienced years of record production. (See the picture below).
Taking these facts into account, There is no evidence that climate change puts cocoa yields under extreme pressure, except in the imagination of Ionescu on Earth.com.
Global carbon dioxide has led to general greening of the earth and has significantly improved crop yields. There are good reasons to believe that rising carbon dioxide concentrations will also significantly promote cocoa production in West and Central Africa.
Beyond climate model predictions, botany, agronomics or climatology have no good reason, because thinking about the growth conditions in the region will get worse.
Even the researchers pointed out that under the various circumstances they predict, some areas in the region may see small or no changes in future yields, others may see increased production, while others decrease. Now.
generally,”[r]ESULT from the mixed-effects model shows the effect of climate variability on all GCMs for all GCMS [general circulation models]) is not very powerful, but this effect depends on the selected climate scenario. ”
The authors of the study honestly acknowledge that their findings are very uncertain due to many factors.
These limiting factors include spatial scales of climate models, lack of data availability, insufficient understanding of potential land use changes, unknown interannual climate variability, and more.
also, They acknowledge that the cocoa simulation model they used “has not been validated in the context of climate change or the rise of carbon dioxide”.
There are no such important admissions in the story of Ionescu's Earth.com, which may lead to people thinking that predictions are more certain than there is.
Ionescu pointed this out Land transformation may also lead to a decrease in cocoa yield due to deforestation caused by rapidly expanding into populations of tropical forests, researchers say.
This may be true; when land is converted into crops or urban expansion, it occurs elsewhere other forest-dependent nuts and fruits, but it has nothing to do with climate change.
Finally, Earth.com's story is a long and shocking speculation that drives a catastrophic climate change narrative and lacks detailed analysis.
The author does not show evidence of his careful and comprehensive citation of the report, or if he does, he understands the nuances and warnings related to the results – at least if he does, he does not discuss it in the story.
There is also no evidence in the story that the author examined any real-world data before asserting that climate change is harming and threatening cocoa production. This is the hasty news you cut it down.
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