California: Rise and Fall – Watt?

Kip Hansen's guest paper – February 23, 2025 – 1600 words

This has nothing to do with California’s nut politics, but it may be.

This is about vertical land movement (VLM After that). VLM is the motion of the land surface far away from the center of the earth (up, up or Uplift) or closer to the center of the earth (down, fall or settlement).

For many locations in North America, VLM is associated with static rebounds such as glaciers. Basically, as the weight of the ice in the north and north melted, that part of the continent that was suppressed by all the weight rebounded and rose. Meanwhile, the south of mainland paper that was dragged or expanded upward during the Ice Age is moving downward.

On the east coast of the United States, the land north of Boston, Massachusetts is about the hinge point, which is exciting, and the land south of Boston is gradually fading. On the west coast of the United States, parts of Alaska are exciting, while the impact of static rebounds such as glaciers is in the south.

Please note that all relative sea levels rise The arrows on the California coast are in the range of “0 to 1 foot per century” – i.e. VLM + Absolute sea level. Absolute sea level is considered to be about 1.7 to 2.0 mm/yr – 7 to 8 inches per cent.

When the uplift of the coast exceeds the slow and steady sea level rise, Relative sea level Fall. When coastal land is received Absolute sea level Ascending, the effect is additive and the speed of rising faster than sea level.

California has a lot of VLM, whether it's settlement or uplift, some of which are very extreme. A recent study that measures California’s VLM in several different ways shows this map:

[click here for very hi-res image in new tab/window]

The most obvious feature is the severe major settlement in the Central Valley – the deep blue spots diagonally across the state. this Coastal areas Usually neutral and light blue, indicating no movement or a slight drop. However, it is important to look at the scale. Two scales are given. The highest proportion if it is large-scale settlement – dark blue through green to lighter colors. This scale is suitable for +/- 100 to 200 (or higher) mm/year.

The lower scale is Number of units mm/year, +/- 4. This lower settlement meter, 0 down to -4 mm/yr, is equivalent to rising Absolute sea level.

And, this is an important point. The coastal portion of California usually decreases at a rate of 1 to 4 mm per year. At the same time, it is generally understood that the absolute sea level rises about 2 to 3 mm/year, commonly known as “global sea level”. [when using global tide gauges for the calculation]. In fact, it can be said that relative sea level rise along most of the California coast is “doubled” by settlement.

To be honest, absolute sea level rise of 2 to 3 mm per year is not a shocking or dangerous amount. In a century, 100 years, 3 mm/year time is 30 cm or 1 foot. Most areas have seen last century SLR 1 foot without disastrous effects. To cope with the 1-foot effect, this 30-cm sea rise, sea wall or dock curb 16-inch (440mm) high, made of two standard 8x8x16-inch concrete blocks (in EU, 215mm x 215mm x 4440mm).

If we These two times The time for relative sea level rise is 6 mm/year, half of which is settlement, with a total rise of 24 inches, 2 feet or 60 cm.

Now, 2 feet, for places that have infrastructure construction that are too close or too close sea ​​level of pastwhich is more common. For areas completely above sea level heights, such as low-lying land, the filled salt marshes become sea level – 1 foot 1 foot house with backyard docks on canals and other high-risk areas. These low-lying areas are often referred to as “sea level rise and flooding of storm surges.” They were, even a century ago. Today, they are at higher risk, and in another 100 years, they are at even greater risk.

The reason they are at risk is that their relative altitude is higher than sea level. One foot, two feet, five feet, six feet – same in the meters – it doesn't matter. Storm surges can be as high as 14 feet – more than 4 meters. In the next century Must be added Any local settlement.

But they are not There are risks yes Climate change. The best long-term study of relative sea levels around the world shows that sea levels have been stable and slowly rising since humans have been actively measuring it.

The claim that melting land ice is a major contributor has not been proven to be correct. The water from melting land increases absolute sea level rise due to the expansion of sea water, which is due to the warmth of the ocean, which increases warmer as the world continues to warm. By the current rather fuzzy calculations, melted land ice – Glacier, Greenland, Antarctic – perhaps Up to 1 mm per year – a few inches and 10 cm per cent per cent. Uncertainty stems from the absolute uncertainty of Antarctic ice: Is it growing or falling, increasing mass or losing mass? Even NASA, which measures Antarctic ice, isn't sure, it has two teams finding completely different answers, both of which are derived from the same dataset.

fight Climate change IPCC and the United Nations (and everyone else in the trend) say we have to decarbonize, we have to exit the addition company₂ Regardless of the cost, the atmosphere.

struggle Climate change Maybe it's a good idea, or maybe it's not a good idea – I don't think it's – but one thing Can't do it Slow or stop sea level rise, or even no warming proportion of sea level rise. Restore the company₂ Emission, atmospheric concentration of GHG or isolation CO₂ Underground or rocks certainly cannot change the portion of relative sea level rise caused by settlement.

Spend taxpayer money or society’s wealth to fight Climate change No measures will be taken to prevent the problem today or tomorrow from rising. These funds must be used to adapt and mitigate the negative impact of ocean rise.

Wild and shocking “prediction” Climate change –Over the next 30 years, driving sea level rise “to 2025” is scientifically ridiculous because such a future is actually impossible.

However, driving very local relative sea level changes through human activities (such as extracting water, pumping water from aquifers below the ground or pumping out large amounts of oil) can lead to massive settlement, which, in turn, forces rolling under pressure ( Causes bulges), water or gas (such as fracturing) downward along the ground.

Bottom line:

1. The sea is rising, rising, and will continue to rise until the Earth enters a cooldown again, similar to the small or true mature Ice Age of Ice Age.

2. The current sea level rise rate will not change much. If there is no risk in a region at present, it will not be subject to risk in the future – sea level rises too slowly.

3. Human infrastructure is already at risk and will continue to be at risk, and future risks will increase slowly and steadily. Such places should spend money and energy to adapt and relieve.

4. Vertical land movement – up and down – is an important factor to consider when local sea level rises relative to sea level. Fight against it Climate change Will affect VLM. Some VLMs can be relieved; for example, stopping the extraction of fresh water or oil near the ocean. Relative sea level rise caused by some VLM must be handled by adaptation – build structures, build seawalls and protect infrastructure.

5. Shocking predictions of dangerous high offshore level rises are impossible, and therefore the spread of these predictions must be considered politically motivated climate alert propaganda.

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Author's comments:

Apart from a very interesting study of California VLM (check the Central Valley), there is nothing special about new in this article. As atmospheric rivers bring a lot of new water to charge the base aquifer, some settlements may be self-corrected. However, for a long time, these aquifers have been instilling fields, orchards and vineyards at a huge rate.

But, overall, there is little to worry about coastal areas of California – most waterfront areas have cliffs, huge remnants of sand dunes in some places like Manhattan Beach, ascending as fast as most people in Los Angeles.

There are areas around the edge of the San Francisco Bay that are just wetlands filled on sea level and then you have the Sacramento River Delta. The surface of the Sacramento River in Lake Washington spans the bay and upstream, and is only 6 feet high in San Francisco Bay. They may be in trouble now.

That's how panics in sea level rises – fear. The time for adaptation and relief has now passed.

Thank you for reading.

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