Error, Guardian, no identifiable “climate critical point” – what about Watt?

From the climateRealism

linnea Lukeen

A recent article guardian Discuss the funding provided to the UK research team to track potential “climate conversion points” so forecasts can be made to warn of imminent disasters. We are approaching dangerous and unprecedented climate conversion points without being supported by historical or current data. In the past, this planet has experienced periods of massive changes many times in the past. There is no evidence that there is a magical temperature that can cause positive feedback to get out of control, and that the myriad conditions pointed out by some researchers have not pointed out, suggesting a “tip” threat to some imagined edges.

The article “activates a £81 million climate tipping point early warning system” describes the funding given to 27 researchers by the UK Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA). according to guardianwhich is “an attempt to develop an early warning system for climate critical points that will combine drones, cosmic ray detection and plankton bloom patterns with artificial intelligence and the most detailed computer model to date.”

The aim is to detect signals “foresee the potential trigger of the biggest climate disasters in the climate crisis”, describing these conditions as climate conversion points “occurring when global temperatures are pushed above thresholds, resulting in unstoppable changes in the climate system.”

The two main critical points that the plan will focus on are the alleged collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic critical currents.

In recent decades, the media has frequently misunderstood or exaggerated the trends of these two so-called portents of climate change.

First, the so-called climate threshold is first of all arbitrary value. The most common threshold value for global average temperatures is 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial temperatures, but this is not a scientifically derived value, although intergovernmental climate change is often cited. It is chosen by the political group. Europe has long exceeded that value, and since then, temperature records date back to the 1700s, with warming over 2.0°C without disastrous results.

That being said, warming has occurred, and since the ice sheets of Greenland ice sheets have undergone some melting, which should have been expected as the planets transition from the Ice Age. Climate Realism Compared with the ice mass in Greenland, ice mass loss is small compared with the ice mass in Greenland, while the months of melting in summer melt in winter, ice mass loss is small, equivalent to very low net ice loss. over time. This is not a sign or sign of an imminent collapse, neither physics nor research on ice dynamics suggests that it should exist.

The collapse of the North Atlantic current is another turning point, often hyped in the media, and the entire background is not enough to be left out of the discussion. Indeed, researchers can’t even reach a consensus on the type of changes (if any) happening to the North Atlantic current. Some studies have shown that current has slowed down, others have accelerated, and others have shown that there are no major changes at all.

Around the same time last year, scientists and media joined forces to warn readers that the Atlantic Mesopotamia Capsize Circulation (AMOC) is about to collapse. This shocking warning is based on the output of a computer model that shows that AMOC may collapse in 1,758 from now on.

As meteorologist Anthony Watts said in “No, CNN and other media media, climate change does not cause the collapse of the ocean cycle”, this slowdown in AMOC is not unprecedented, in fact, for humans Provides better conditions: Humans: Humans are better conditions:

The young Dryas climate event occurred about 12,900 to 11,700 years ago. Many climate changes associated with this event may be a response to increased North Atlantic freshwater emissions and reduced AMOC intensity. This basically marks the end of the recent Ice Age, beginning with the people who have become more inhabitable on Earth, and sedentary agriculture begins. Shortly after that, in the geological period, the first reborn large-scale civilization began to develop with the blink of an eye.

The Earth's multiple climate systems are complex and connected by many merely understood mechanisms. Contradictory studies seem to clearly demonstrate this fact, which seem to be between predicting slowing or accelerating AMOCs, depending on the data used and assumptions built into the modeling.

The main theme of all the history of the Earth is constantly changing. Some of these changes, such as transitions Enter The Ice Age is large and harmful to life. Moderate warming over the past century is not in that category. Sadly, it is impossible to fund climate alert research besides flawed computer models, which leads to more risk predictions. But if we are lucky, the data collected over the next few decades will help ease researchers and guardianThe reporter said that because climate change has no existential threat to life or human civilization.