National Hurricane Center sets historical record of forecast accuracy in 2024

Finally, NOAA is a parent organization or NHC for the National Hurricane Center: During the highly active 2O24 Atlantic hurricane season, NHCs have recorded track forecasts for each interval (12-, 24-, 24-, 36-, 36-, 48-, 60-, 72-, 72-, 96-, 96-, 96-, 120 and 120 and terecs of erecrional of torecs of ecs), and studies of February 24 and 2024 show that research funds spent since 2007 to improve the forecast of hurricanes could result in over $10 billion in comprehensive benefits, causing only two major hurricanes suffered in 2024. But under the Trump administration, the budget for hurricane research may be cut.

The intensity forecast is also very good in 2024

The average error of the NHC's forecast for intensity or storm intensity in 2024 is slightly higher than in the past few years, and there is no record of determining accuracy. However, the intensity forecast for 2024 is much more difficult than usual: there is a 34 episodes of rapid reinforcement this year, which is defined as a maximum air volume of at least 35 mph in 24 hours. This number of rapid reinforcement events is almost twice the average over the past 10 years. Fast intensity prediction is one of the most important challenges in hurricane prediction.

Another thing…Around 2010, what you might not hear about is that you might have a 70% fast-enhancing test on 24 hours (as the NHC does). This is a major scientific achievement and support for programs brought by talented scientists… https://t.co/x1mjzpl73p

– Andy Hazelton (@andyhazelton) February 24, 2025

Thanks to the Hurricane Prediction Improvement Project

The Hurricane Prediction Improvement Project, or HFIP, was established within the NOAA in response to the devastating hurricanes from 2004 to 2005, including Charlie in 2004 and Wilma, Katrina and Rita in 2005. 2009 began the 2009 target, which aims to reduce the track and intensity error of hurricanes 50% of the time (by 2014) and reduce it by 50% according to the 2024 National Bureau of Economic Research “Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts”, wind speed (i.e. intensity) forecast errors since 2007. During the same period, the average orbital error for the two-day and longer predictions increased by about two (Figure 1).

Hurricane study on budget cut risks

As we wrote in our post last week, cutting our weather and climate research could make public safety hazards, NOAA aims to get a lot of budget cuts this year, the organization could be broken down and some of its functions are privatized. In the 2025 project, the Trump administration has been cutting the administration’s blueprint so far, with NOAA’s office of atmospheric research seen as “the source of many large parts of the NOAA climate shock”, and the document requires that most of the office’s research be concluded.

But in addition to conducting a large number of climate change research, the Office of Atmospheric Research also has the first two centers for hurricane research: the Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorological Laboratory and the Geophysical Dynamics Laboratory. The huge benefit of improving the forecast of hurricanes for society is a huge benefit, saving many lives and preventing billions of dollars in losses. The major cuts in the budgets of both laboratories could significantly slow down the forecast of hurricanes, preventing us from saving billions of dollars each year from future hurricanes.

Improved forecasts lead to more than $5 billion in savings per hurricane landing

The 2024 study of the nonprofit, nonpartisan National Economic Research Agency “Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts” found that the latest advances in hurricane forecasts for hurricane forecasts have recently made progress on 18 hurricanes for the U.S. landing hurricanes, including from 2005 to 2020 (including all nine major landings and five cat landions in Contrive of Catter in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs 2 and Cat fans in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs 2 and Cat fans in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs in Contrifs $ hard fans in 2 and Nirife of, with another 19% re-limit. hurricane. These benefits are through reducing death and damages, or inspiring confidence in decisions to adapt measures in advance without spending money.

This average return hurricane The same as the $6.8 billion NOAA budget for 2024 is far beyond the $10-4 million annually of the $10-4 million annually for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project. The benefits may be greatly underestimated, the researchers say, because they only examine the value of improving wind speed forecasts and no predictions of improved rainfall and storm surges.

Given these results, research funds spent since 2007 are used to improve the hurricane forecast, which is justified, resulting in more than $10 billion in integrated benefits, both hit by Helene and Milton in 2024. Billions of dollars in benefits may also accumulate for the forecast of three other hurricanes that hit the U.S.: Cat 1 Beryl, Cat 2 Francine and Cat 1 Debby.

With climate change expected to make hurricanes most powerful, now in the U.S. at a historic landing period for high-end Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes (Figure 3), a powerful U.S. hurricane research program could prepare for public safety when disaster strikes.

Bob Henson contributed to this article.