There are many people who tell us that we have reached an important turning point about the world's polar sea ice paper. [emphasis, links added]
The BBC told us that sea ice in the world has fallen to record lows, informing us that the late Arctic range dropped from an average of 7 million square kilometers in the 1980s to 4.5 million square kilometers in the 2010s.
It added that until the mid-2010s, on the other side of the world, Antarctic sea ice has obvious elasticity, ignoring the prediction that it will shrink.
However, since then, the mainland has shown a series of very low sea ice expansions, Although there is still a lot of natural variability.
You can ask the data yourself and see how variable it is.
Daily lows
This year, the Arctic daily sea ice range has been hovering near record daily lows, far north in the long-term average locations of most areas.
The average range in January 2025 was 13.13 million square kilometers (5.07 million square miles), the second lowest value of the month in satellite records, and the lowest range in December 2024.
In Antarctica, daily sea ice ranges are below the long-term average after the short-term average daily averageending January below the lowest minimum of ice volume for the day.
The January range was 50,000 square kilometers (19,000 square miles) above the 2018 record low (Figure 1A and 1B), and 1.29 million square kilometers (498,000 square miles) below the 1981-2010 average.
Two years later, Antarctic data appeared. 2023 performed well in its satellite record for sea ice, staying below the fifth percentage point of climate almost throughout the year. There will be a slight recovery in 2024.
Gilbert and Sherlock Holmes say While this may be part of the sea ice decline associated with man-induced climate change, it is too early to say that.
How rare?
However, the British Antarctic survey can be sure that the record low Antarctic sea ice is “extremely impossible” without climate change.
They calculated a race that was less than a thousand years old without climate change, and humans would be four times more likely to cause climate change!
I'm worried that concluding the climate of a particular event-contribution study could happen by chance in over two thousand years.
Given the uncertainty in the model and its propagation, I am not confident about the robustness of this number.
It would be interesting to see what would happen, because the recovery was probably explained by the same model. Interestingly, there is more Antarctic sea ice in January 2025 than in January 1980.
Elastic Antarctic
A new study shows During the high temperature periods around 120,000 years ago, the main Antarctic ice shelves were much more resilient than previously thought.
There is a lot of debate about the stability of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).
Researchers at the University of Cambridge studied the behavior of the Ron Ice Shelf (the second largest border) during the last interglacial period 117,000 to 126,000 years ago. They checked the salt concentration in the ice core, which indicated its extent during the period.
It is found to be more stable and larger than the model predicted under time conditions The probability of gas collapse in response to global warming is lower.
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