NOAA Aircraft Operations Office, home to the NOAA Hurricane Hunter, laid off employees last week, threatening to reduce data quality that is critical to hurricane monitoring, forecasting and warnings. On February 28, NOAA terminated two flight directors and an electronics engineer.
Hurricane hunters fly into active storms to collect data for weather forecasts.
One might think that it doesn't matter if only three crew members are fired in an organization that employs nearly 100 of them. But it happens that in less than two years of work, two pilot employees were flight directors, which I worked from 1986 to 1990. This is especially problematic, as every hurricane hunter mission requires carrying the flight director – a meteorologist – a meteorologist from meteorology.
Through the eyes of a hurricane #HELENE On board @noaa WP-3D Orion #NOAA42 “Kermit” is on the mission on the evening of September 26, 2024. The mission gathers key data that a large hurricane intensified before landing. Find NOAA resources after ongoing impact and storms… pic.twitter.com/qv0qxlzjp2
– NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (@noaa_hurrhunter) September 27, 2024
To get these three NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes to run 24/7 in a huge hurricane, Noaa had eight crew members in the past, so there were eight flight directors. NOAA has only six main crew members due to the loss of two flight directors. This is hardly enough to keep the aircraft in the air during the two flights that occur during the severe threat. As one of the fired flight director Kerri Englert explained in an interview with NBC, NOAA’s goal is to fill 10 flight director positions. But after she and another flight supervisor were fired, only six were left. Now, if a flight supervisor gets sick, Hurricane Hunter will have fewer flights. And if further employee exhaustion occurs before hurricane season, we won't be surprised – I know if I'm still working as the old job as the flight director of NOAA Hurricane Hunter, then worrying about my job security will make me look for new jobs for new jobs.
“In private business, promiscuous skilled workers are disadvantageous. Coupled with the threat of public safety to accidental and unselective layoffs, government actions cannot be demonstrated by any rational, performance-based criteria.
The Value of NOAA Hurricane Hunter
The Air Force's fleet of 10 Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not been affected by budget cuts. Therefore, losing NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft due to shortage of personnel will not greatly reduce the overall quantity Flights carried out. However, it will greatly reduce quality The data collected may have a negative impact on hurricane prediction.
NOAA aircraft consists of two heavy P-3 Orion that penetrate into the eyes of the hurricane and an high-altitude Gulfstream IV jet to collect data around. All Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA feed data into computer models used to predict hurricanes. This includes data from instruments mounted on the plane, as well as “Dropsonde” data from probes launched from aircraft that landed in the storm. However, only the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane carries Doppler radar, capturing detailed 3D images of the entire storm every few seconds.
Data from these Doppler radars are fed into our three top hurricane models: the newer HAFS-A and HAFS-B and the older HWRF. These two newer models have best intensity forecasts for the most destructive hurricane of 2024 and have done a good job with Helene as well. In many cases, HAFS-A and HAFS-B predictions far exceed the official strength forecasts of the National Hurricane Center. Without data from NOAA Hurricane Hunter, these models will also show up – the official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center may reduce accuracy. A 2024 study found that from 2007-2022, the HWRF helped reduce its intensity prediction error by 45%–50%.
Bump into the hurricane #Milton exist @noaa WP-3D Orion #NOAAAA43 Miss Pig collects data to help improve forecasts and support hurricane research.
Visit https://t.co/3phpgknx0q for the latest forecasts and consultations
For your information, please visit https://t.co/uora967zk0 pic.twitter.com/ezmxu2zqta– NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (@noaa_hurrhunter) October 8, 2024
National Hurricane Center loses two staff members
According to my conversations with knowledgeable people, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) did not have any trial staff during last week's cleaning. However, the NHC lost a tropical analysis and predicted the quotes from branch forecasters, as well as a technical and scientific branch IT personnel for “forks on the road”. I was told that only 76 employees in the NHC would be a little nervous. The NHC looks to have a complete complement to hurricane experts who wrote Hurricane Consultation this year (although NOAA is threatened with further massive layoffs – see the end of the article).
NOAA Hurricane Hunter is the key to progress in hurricane research
The three NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are world-class flight laboratories that bring research scientists from NOAA Hurricane Research Department into the storm. The research conducted by these aircraft is crucial in the tremendous advances that have attributed to the amazing growth that has caused billions of dollars in forecast growth in recent years. As reported in our last week’s post, the National Hurricane Center set an historical record in 2024, a nonprofit, nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research’s study, “The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts,” found that the latest forecasts for hurricanes recently encountered in 2005 hurricanes, including the latest forecasts for hurricanes, resulted in a 19% reduction in total hurricane-related costs – an average of $5 billion lower hurricane. These benefits are through reducing death and damages, or inspiring confidence in decisions to adapt measures in advance without spending money.
Average earnings of $5 billion Every major hurricane The equivalent of the total NOAA budget for 2024 is $6.8 billion, far exceeding the cumulative budget of $250 million spent during the 2009-2019 hurricane research period. The benefits may be greatly underestimated, the researchers say, because they only examine the value of improving wind speed forecasts and no predictions of improved rainfall and storm surges.
Major cuts in hurricane research
Although the entire range is not yet clear, NOAA's hurricane research efforts have also been greatly reduced. Last week, Andy Hazelton, one of the leading developers of NOAA's highest hurricane prediction model. “I recently got a performance review saying I did a great job. I won the NOAA award for Team Member of the Year. Our biggest mission is to protect life and property. All the weather data you use, whether it's an app on your phone or an app you see on your TV, a lot of it comes from National Weather Services and NOAA, i.e. satellite, radar, modeling. That's what I do when you see spaghetti lines on TV. I'm the brain behind the computer that makes spaghetti lines.”
NOAA's environmental modeling center suffered 25% layoffs, Rick Spinrad, former NOAA administrator, said in an interview with the Washington Post. The team is responsible for forming a computer predictive model for U.S. weather forecasts, including hurricane forecasts. In an interview with NPR, James Franklin, retired head of the NHC Hurricane Prediction Division, said the layoffs dig the model center to the point where he wanted to know if he was working there to improve the hurricane model.
NOAA threatens to cut further
NOAA has abandoned 5-10% of its employees and plans to lay off 50% of its total employees and lose 30% of its funds, said Andrew Rosenberg, former deputy director of NOAA. If they are achieved, such cuts will greatly increase the current and future risks of hurricanes. In an era of accelerating the effects of climate change, hurricanes are getting higher and higher, storm currents at sea levels and higher ocean and atmosphere rainfall, which can be dangerous.
The government's 2025 project plan requires the breakdown of NOAA, most of its climate change research is over, and the National Meteorological Agency will be commercialized.
What are people doing
- Contact elected officials. This website allows you to know who your representative is and how to contact them.
- Participate in the “Science Support” protests nationwide on Friday, March 7.
Related Articles
National Hurricane Center sets historical record of forecast accuracy in 2024
Cutting down our weather and climate research could put public safety at risk
Bob Henson contributed to this article.
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