Climate disaster or insufficient flood control? – Watt?

Eric Worrall's paper

Until recently, Australia's Greater East Coast Hurricane Alfred was a symptom of climate apocalypse and was only recently hyped. But the doomer faces the disappointment of another nature.

Will climate change enhance the ability of tropical cyclone Alfred to Australia?

Alfred

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will hit southeast Queensland sometime on Saturday morning, bringing the risk of destructive winds, extreme flooding and storm surges to millions around Brisbane, the Gold Coast and New South Wales.

What role will the climate crisis play in tropical climates and its impacts when it was recorded as the hottest in the global record last year were the hottest people in Australia’s oceans?

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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/06/is-climate-change-supercharging-tropical-cyclone-cyclone-alfred-as-as-it-powers-powers-powers-towards-towards-australia

Fortunately, Alfred turned into a hiss. A powerful storm will bring a lot of rain and flooding, but it is no longer a catastrophic whirlwind.

happen: Tornado Alfred is downgraded when it is near the coastIt is expected to travel between Maroochydore and Brisbane; Albanes waste is scheduled for April election; “Dangerous times” with wind, rain hammering millions

Adam Vidler

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Degraded

By Karishma Sarkari07 2025 23:25

Cyclone Alfred has been downgraded to Category 1 Storm Among the latest recommendations issued by the Meteorological Bureau.

The system moves northwest at a speed of 9 km/h, driving forecasts across the coast.

Alfred is still expected to cross the Moreton Bay Islands early Saturday morning and then cross the continental shore between Brisband and Maroochydore later in the day.

The cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves inland on Saturday night and Sunday.

Although wind gusts caused by up to 120 km/h and still occurring in heavy rainfall to strong rainfall, this is still a possibility of life-threatening mountain flooding, The Meteorological Bureau said destructive wind gusts were no longer expected.

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Read more: https://www.9news.com.au/national/national/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-tracker-tracker-queensland-power-power-13081401-e614-459c-b757-a972f-54.25-54 cost–news-news-headlines/13081401-E61401-ER 3D-B2C2-874DF6F99CEB

Will Australian cyclones become more and more frequent?

Here is a rather confused statement from the Australian CSIRO, Australia's peak scientific institution. The cyclone frequency is decreasing, but the theory of their rupture suggests that the cyclone frequency should increase.

3. Has the frequency of tropical cyclones changed?

Research shows Statistically obvious downward trend in the number of tropical cyclones in Australia During the period of satellite imagery, the period extending from 1981/82 to 2017/18. The reason for this downward trend is still determined, but may be due to the combination of natural variability and long-term climate change. Other non-satellite observations show that the number of tropical cyclones has also been declining for a long time since 1900.

The Bureau of Meteorological Satellite Records are relatively short and historical analysis methods have changed. Combining the effects of high variability in the number of tropical cyclones and natural variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern oscillations), it makes it difficult to attribute the trend to any single factor.

However, it is clear that sea surface temperatures are rising along northern Australia – part of the massive ocean warming observed over the past 50 years due to the rise in greenhouse gases. Warm oceans tend to increase the amount of water transported from the ocean to the atmosphere, and A warm atmosphere can keep more moisture, so intense rainfall events using tropical cyclones have greater potential.

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Read more: https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2025/march/things-to-to-nows-know-bout-about-tropical-cyclones

Obviously, the risk of destruction of flooding remains a serious problem, and the residue of the cyclone may pour large amounts of water into the rivers or other lower levels of Brisbane. But there may be another explanation as to why the flood risk in Brisbane is so severe.

Start a few days ago;

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“Watch anxiously”: Huge whirlwind phone

Even though the dam in southeast Queensland was almost full, a liter of water was not released until Alfred's forecast of 600mm rain began to drop.

A Sekwater spokesman told Courier.

“Our 24/7 flood operation center is mobilized and (approximate rainfall) is ready to be controlled, closed release later this week.”

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Read more: https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/technology/environment/no-south-east-queensland-dam-releases-until-rain-from-cyclone-alfred-begins/news-story/be556f1df0aaa66a41bbd3fac8549fda

Why order the dam operator to stick to every drop of water until the last possible moment? Of course, the reason is not enough to dam's capacity. As Brisbane and other Queensland cities flourish in populations, there is little interest in providing water to match the growing population. The result is that dam operators must stick to every drop of water, which will only be released when some temporary storm hits its catchment area, even if the upcoming storm is a whirlwind.

SEQ does not have enough drinking water to thrive

go through Felicity Caldwell
August 19, 2021 – 8.00pm

Southeast Queensland will not have enough drinking water to support its rapidly growing population due to concerns that dams in the area will struggle to provide millions of residents to the additional residents.

Revelation emerges because residents may endure mandatory water restrictions in less than four months.

A sharp warning about the demand for new water sources, such as dams or desalination plants, was emailed to the office of Drinking Water Minister Glenn Butcher in December, and the report shows that demand for water will increase as the population in southeast Queensland grows by more than 2 million over the next 25 years.

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Read more: https://www.brisbaneimes.com.au/politics/queensland/seq-does-not-have-enough-enough-drinking-water-for-booming-population-20210818-p58jqd.html

If the dam has a larger capacity, the risk of flooding will be much less – in the face of the threat of rainfall, dam operators can confidently fall the dam without worrying about insufficient rain. The capacity of the backup dam can be used to absorb flooding in the water catchment area of ​​the water supply dam.

The image at the top of the article shows the potential consequences of not releasing dam water until the last minute.

In 2013, Brisbane was affected by the cyclone Oswald and severe rainfall and flooding incidents occurred.

Then as now, the dam operator was ordered to delay release until the last minute. The result was catastrophic – when rain over 3 feet suddenly poured into the collection area of ​​the Wivenhoe Dam, the dam operator was forced to open the gates to save the dam, thus bringing the Brisbane River above normal height. The rumbling dam flows out with a low-pressure storm surge of cyclones rushed into the sea from Brisbane's most expensive commercial and residential areas.

Colleges Crossing, pictured at the top of this article, is the main outflow of the Wivenhoe Dam, a reservoir that provides the national capital of Brisbane. The water passing through the University enters the Brisbane River, which was a major contributor to the inner city flooding in 2013. My home turned into an island at that time as the spillway flooded in the lowlands, cut down all the roads and brought the pain to the owner of the riverside property downstream of the dam.

I mean Brisbane's flood disaster has nothing to do with climate change. I suspect flood risk can be completely eliminated in subtropical sites like Brisbane, but flooding can be mitigated by better flood control, including expanding existing dams or building new ones. Larger dam capacity will give dam operators confidence in lowering water levels in the face of dangerous rainfall events, even if they are unsure whether the rainwater will hit the dam basin rather than until the last minute, then flood the city of Brisbane and then release with an emergency to save the dam from catastrophic failure.

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