The 2024-25 winter summary of the NOAA released on March 10th for 48 consecutive states ends with a verdict you might guess: Despite the coldness at some times and locations, a period of a winter storm is less fierce than most winters emitted in the late 20th century.
Meteorological winter (December to February) averages 48 countries with temperatures of 34.09 degrees Fahrenheit (1.16 degrees Celsius). This is the 27th largest reading of the 130 winter seasons in the NOAA database, which extended into 1895. Just a year ago, the country ended its warmest winter in a row in the U.S. history.
For most Americans, winter 2024-25 is less iconic, with less Arctic outbreaks, and longer colder weather is colder than winter, especially in December, the fourth warmer December in the eastern United States, followed by January 33rd and February 52nd.
No state has a much cooler winter than the past 130 years. Arizona and Nevada are on record as the fourth warmest winter, and Nevada is the warmest.
The outstanding winter event is the bizarre, historic snowstorm that swept along the U.S. Gulf Coast on January 21. For most locations, it was once a family, once a century of snowfall, only encountered a similar weird storm on Valentine's Day in 1895, falling from 1895 to 20 inches, falling from 10 to 20 inches, falling from an increasing number of Orgly or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or. The locations that broke the history of a storm this time include Move, AL (7.5 inches), Pensacola, Florida (8.9 inches) and New Orleans Airport (8.0”). In March 1954, several locations in Florida smashed the state’s previous record of 4.0 inches of snowfall set in Milton. One of them is Milton itself, which performed at 8.9 inches.
After this fast-hitting storm, fresh snow and clear skies have brought temperatures down to the ridiculous value of Louisiana's coastal coast, including the historic lows in New Iberia, at 4°F in Lafayette, at 7°F in Jennings, at 7°F in Baton Rouge Airport. Nationwide, however, January’s months are modest than the long-term average, while most of the northern U.S. are significantly less than average snowfall.
As we saw in the Global Climate Review later this week, the contrast between colder winters in the U.S. and warmer winters in Canada is huge. This topsy-type setting is more typical of El Niño than the LaNiña winter, with the mark of the warm Arctic/cold mid-latitude pattern studied for more than a decade, a potential by-product of climate change caused by humans (see our recent deep dive on the topic of this research).
Another catastrophic California fire – but this time it's January
2024-25 winter is on the drought side in most parts of the country, and we are ranked 20th in a row in 130 years of record keeping. Arizona and New Mexico recorded the second driest winter, while Utah was the eighth drought. No state has the wettest winters.
By far, the biggest disaster in the United States in winter was a pair of devastating wildfires that swept parts of Los Angeles in early January. According to preliminary data, Calfire ranked Eaton and Palisades as the second and third largest devastating wildfires in modern national history (by the number of structures destroyed), destroying 9,413 and 6,833 structures, and occupying 17 and 12 lives, respectively. Although the 2018 camp fire destroyed more structures than those of the Eaton and Palisades fires, the cost of the Los Angeles fires is much higher given the high property value of the area. Insured losses averaged around $31 billion, which would make them the most expensive wildfires in world history.
The stage was set as one of the driest disasters in the winter wet season amid the double fires in Los Angeles, destroying the landscape raised by plenty of water in early 2024. Covering on Tinderbox is a rare meteorological setting, a rare meteorological setting that produces mountain-driven atmospheric waves that make people push it to Los Angelses more quickly than Santaa Aa ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana aa aa ana ana ana ana aa aa ana ana ana aa ana ana aa ana ana aa ana ana ana aa aa ana ana ana ana aa ana ana ana aa ana ana ana aa ana ana ana ana aa ana ana ana ana aa ana ana ana ana ana aa ana ana ana ana ana ana aa ana ana ana ana ana ana ana aa ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana aa ana ana a sana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana If the scenery has been wet with winter rain, this unusually intense storm may not lead to such catastrophic fires, which is more typical in early January.
By the end of February, a series of Pacific storms provided some much-needed relief to much of the coastal areas of California. However, the interior of the southwest was still burned. In Arizona, it was the second driest winter for Tucson’s 131 record preservation (0.25 inches) and the third time in Phoenix (0.03 inches) dries in 130 years.
As of the first week of March, drought monitors in the U.S. showed that nearly 45% of the continuous U.S. were experiencing a certain degree of drought. This is similar to 44% in early December, but is still uncomfortable given the rapid increase in the rate of drought in spring and summer. NOAA's latest seasonal drought prospects (see Figure 4 below) Over the next three months, suspected droughts range from the Central Rockies to the Southern Plains and throughout Florida.
Severe outbreaks on Friday and Saturday could bring multiple tornadoes
Over the next few weeks, powerful jets will be worn nationwide with large air interference. This is a crank version of the classic marching pattern, which, early in the year, produced multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms not too early.
The biggest concerns are now centered around one of the most powerful early spring storms ever seen on the Central Plains. Over the weekend, multiple runs of the GFS model portrayed surface bass at pressures in Kansas and Nebraska later this week. This is close to the lowest value recorded at any time of the year at these locations. The European model is not so feverish, but it can still predict pressures in the 975 to 980 MB range.
For Category 1 hurricanes, these center pressure values won't go beyond the line – but of course this won't. In non-tropical mid-latitude cyclones, the wind pressure gradient is much wider than that of hurricanes. This means that the winds won't last as a hurricane, but they're still fierce enough in much of the plain to lower trees and wires and block the visibility of the highway with blowing dust.
On the low northwest side, snowstorm conditions may push into parts of the central and northern plains from eastern Colorado to North Dakota.
Meanwhile, along the cold front, along the low, intense thunderstorm, could erupt Friday and cross parts of Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas, and travel to western Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee in the evening. (Note that this rough timing may change for 12 hours or more). The second high-level interference could be generated in another round of bad weather to the south and east on Saturday, perhaps from Eastern Arkansas and Louisiana to Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.
On Friday, an instant bay moisture will be pulled north in the front direction of the front. On that day, the system may end up wandering, limiting the worst of the bad weather. But with such intense, cold premium low racing, only a certain amount of moisture is enough to create a thunderstorm-the wind shears that nurture super battery thunderstorms may be at or near extreme levels. Given the size and intensity of the parent storm system, the tornado supercell may burst in a wide area and then condense into one or more intense extrusion lines.
On Monday morning, March 10, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center centered on Friday with the highest severity probability before Saturdays in Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama (see Figure 5 above). There should be enough moisture on Saturday, which will increase the chance of rainfall, but Saturday’s bad weather will be highly dependent on the interaction of any storms left on Friday night.
Jeff Masters contributed to this article.
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