In a 2022 study, nearly half of Canadians said in Canadians surveyed that they believe humans are doomed to fail due to climate change, while more than three-quarters say they are scared. No wonder. [emphasis, links added]
They grew up, not only in Canada, but also in shots of natural disasters around the world, and activists claiming that climate change makes the planet inseparable bombardment. But this is completely wrong.
The ubiquity of telephone cameras and our ability to communicate immediately – the “CNN effect” means that the media can now show more weather disasters than ever before.
But that doesn't mean that disasters are fatal or more expensive.
As we saw in the first article in this series, deaths from climate-related disasters have dropped dramatically. In the 1870s, an average of 5 million people died from this disaster each year.
A century ago, about half a million people did this every year. However, over the past decade, the global death toll has been less than 10,000 per year.
As the global population increases, the number of deaths in disasters has dropped by 500 times. There are huge declines for all major disaster categories including floods, flash torrents, cold waves and wind disasters as well as rich and poor countries. But you've never heard of it in the disaster report.
Floods are Canada's most expensive and most common disaster. However, the general idea that flood costs are rising dramatically ignores the obvious fact that When there are more homes in floodplain than decades ago and the homes are worth a lot more, the same flood will cause greater losses.
We need to keep these changes in mind and measure costs by proportional GDP. Even the United Nations says this is how to measure whether towns are safer.
Despite the lack of analyses for peer review of Canada, there is plenty of time elsewhere to take advantage of. Generally, the United States has the most comprehensive data.
It shows that while flooding costs increase in absolute meaning, it is simply because more people and property are harmed. In 1913, in the country's worst year, the loss exceeded 2% of GDP, although the annual average of the era was 0.5%.
Today, it is less than 0.05% of GDP, accounting for only one tenth of what it was a century ago.
We know that adaptation can reduce disasters over time. Considering sea level rise, this has the potential to be in the global flood of coastal areas.
A cited study showed that at the beginning of this century, an average of 3.4 million people experienced coastal floods each year, with $11 billion in compensation each year. Meanwhile, about $13 billion, or 0.05% of global GDP, is used for coastal defense.
By the end of this century, more and more people will be hurt, and climate change may bring sea levels up to one meter. If we do not improve our coastal defense capabilities, we may often flood vast areas, flooding, causing $55 trillion in losses each year, exceeding 5% of global GDP in 2100.
This discovery is indeed headlines.
But it ignores adaptability, which, research shows, suggests much less cost. average The state will spend only 0.005% of GDP to avoid flood losses.
Even with higher sea levels, there will be much less flooding – only 2,100 people per year with only 15,000 people. Even the total cost of adaptation and damage accounts for only 0.008% of GDP.
An ambitious, multi-million dollar, costing hundreds of dollars in ambitious emission reduction policies could have flooded the end of the century from 15,000 to about 10,000 per year.
But please note the difference: The adaptation reduced the number of people currently flooded by nearly 3.4 million, avoiding 184 million people flooded in 2100 years each year. At best, climate policy can only save 1.05 million.
We often hear the world catching fire due to climate change. New liberal Mark Carney repeated this in Sunday's acceptance speech. Indeed, in 2023, Canada has more surface area than in any year since 1970, and climate change may be partly blamed.
Even so, two points need to be kept in mind.
First, most studies predicting wildfire increase ignore adaptability. Humans do not like fire and do their best to reduce it, which is why there are fewer areas of burning than more since 1900.
Data from the last century involves historical reconstruction. But NASA satellites have been tracking all major fires since 1997.
The record shows that burned areas around the world have dropped sharply. Last year, it was the second lowest, and in 2022 it was the lowest ever. The study found that even without climatic effects, the combustion zone continues to decline with adaptive combustion.
Second, reducing emissions is a very inefficient helping method.
Research by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency shows Even the drastic reduction in emissions will reduce the burning areas of this century.
Simpler, cheaper, faster policies like better forest management, prescription fires and cleaning up bushes can help more.
The flood of disaster pornography has horrified our children and misrepresented our perceptions, which only leads to poor climate policies.
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