Markers on the road leading to the green energy wall – electric truck version – Wattwatt?

People from Manhattan against the trend

Francis Menton

In a December 2021 article, I first asked which state or country would be the first to hit the “renewable energy wall” and was described as “When the power system stops running or the price passes through the roof,” Or some other impossible aspect becomes so inevitable that the zero carbon fantasy must be abandoned. In subsequent posts, I explored various ways in which the walls began to appear, such as the cancellation of offshore wind development and the abandonment of substantial investments to produce what is called “green hydrogen.”

Although the arrival of the walls has been obvious for a long time, green energy fantasies have set statutory and regulatory mandates far enough to have no immediate estimates. But now, five years or even longer have begun to change. The first impossible task suddenly looms. President Trump's arrival at the scene also had a huge negative impact on the green energy population. But today, I will focus on a topic that is relevant to reality, not any action by the President. The theme is a fully electric heavy truck.

Here in New York, our state and city governments are frantically taking another green energy mandate that is impossible and never happens. Most of them are from the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) and the city’s local law 97, both passed in 2019. In most cases, the impossible mission will only start in 2030. Therefore, there are no walls yet.

But in 2021, Governor Hawkel is trying to do better with the CLCPA by adopting regulations called “advanced cleaning truck rules.” This rule requires a percentage Heavy Trucks For sale in New York is “zero emissions”, i.e. fully electric. New York is said to have copied this rule and its percentage from California. For the 2025 model year that is now underway, the relevant percentage is 7%.

Fully electric Heavy Trucks? Does anyone think this is? Obviously not. The New York Post reported today that two Democratic lawmakers have now introduced legislation to delay the task of heavy trucks until 2027. The lawmakers are Jeremy Coney Cooney of Rochester and Donna Lupado of Binghamton. Two people call the mission “The trucking industry is almost impossible to comply.” Here is one of several notable issues:

Legislators point out that a regular diesel truck can be renovated in about 10 minutes and can drive about 2,000 miles. By comparison, a zero-launch heavy truck takes about 10 hours to charge and can travel about 500 miles. . . . “Battery charging time… A challenge that will continue until new technologies emerge and commercialize them.” [Lupardo] explain.

Does anyone really think this battery charging problem will be solved within a few years? People only develop batteries suitable for this purpose, about 100 years. Other issues pointed out by lawmakers include “Laboring charging infrastructure” and “cost.” On the cost side, the post reports that all-electric heavy trucks may be priced at three times as much as diesel competitors with comparable load capacity. Quotes from these legislators:

“It doesn’t make sense to put the entire industry in this process as we transition to the future of clean energy.”

Needless to say, all New York environmental groups line up on the other side. From the post:

[E]NVIROMALTAL groups against the delay of the proposed rule include the New York Clean Energy Alliance, New York Environmental Advocate, Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund, New York Clean Rights, Sierra Club, Tri-State Transportation Movement and a coalition of relevant scientists.

Here is their opinion on the matter:

“The delay in implementation is not only a foolish response to the false crisis of manufacturer whipping that hopes to make the market good, but will lead to more emergency rooms, people with asthma and increased health costs, especially for people of color and low-income communities.” “Our organization urges the governor and legislature to stand up for vulnerable communities and reject this legislation, and similar efforts.”

Enviros seems to think they can achieve their ranks by speaking by claiming to be “vulnerable communities.” As far as I can determine, greenhouse gas emissions are almost unrelated to the incidence of asthma or other health problems. I live in central Manhattan and hundreds of diesel trucks pass by every day and we are worse off than anywhere else. Meanwhile, are the “fragile” communities, or at least low-income communities, interested in not increasing the cost of delivering groceries and other goods, while demand for all-electric trucks has increased multiples?

So far, at the consumer level, the impact of electric truck authorization is not obvious. This mission is only for the manufacturer's sales, not for the actual fleet of truck operators. The manufacturers seem to have figured out some workarounds that are at least currently working. (Maybe they are building some electric trucks that may or may not work and sell them to themselves or friends for one dollar.). But that doesn't help. 7% rises to 10% next year, 15% in 2027, 20% in 2028, and 25% in 2029 starts there.

California is clearly trying to apply its percentage authorization to the fleet of truck operators, not just sales to manufacturers. The incoming Trump administration has weakened this.

Ten states, including California, adopted California rules regarding all-electric heavy trucks. As far as I know, New York was the first to show signs of blinking. Without some miracles of new technology in next year or two, it cannot be done longer. The possibility of a miraculous new technology is about zero.

The initiatives of Rep. Cooney and Lupardo are unlikely to succeed this year. Next year, maybe the second year, this could be another story.

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