The third Woolster February »Yale Climate Connection

In February 2025, NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information (NASA) was the third month on Earth in analyses of global weather data on March 12, 2025. Temperature occurs. European Copernicus Climate Change Services also set February 2025 as the third place in February.

This is the first month in nearly two years (since May 2023), and globally, the month ranked second in the first or second place in the month, indicating an exciting surge in global heat at the start of the powerful Elniño incident in 2023-24, when the long-standing human-induced heat finally finally decreased under weaker LaNiña conditions (see below). However, global readings are still much higher than any year before the mid-2010s.

According to NOAA, the Global Land Region achieved its fourth promotion in 2025, while the Global Ocean was second in February. February in Oceania is the second warmer; South America, the third warmer; Asia, its eighth place; Africa’s twelfth greenhouse; North America, the 22nd warmer; and Europe, the 27th time. As detailed in our Monday post, the successive United States has had its 52nd winter in February and 26th winter since 1895.

In February 2025, snow cover in the northern hemisphere was close to the average level.

LaNiña's weak event is expected to end this spring

NOAA reported a weak LaNiña event in February’s Elniño/Southern Oscillation State or ENSO’s February discussion, or in a monthly discussion in February (new updates were originally scheduled to be released on March 13). The Australian Meteorological Agency (using a stricter threshold than NOAA to define the LaNiña condition) did not recognize that the LaNiña event occurred this year and said we have been in neutral conditions.

If the event lasted five overlapping three months, or long enough to become a LaNiña episode, this would be the latest episode in NOAA Records, dating back to 1950.

Over the past few weeks, sustained westerly winds in the easternmost tropical Pacific have been trapped in typical cool upwellings of LaNiña and have caused temperatures to be significantly above average near South America, while the average above the average Pacific is kept at average, see the Pacific Ocean in emporato (see Skeet below). In between, the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region is neutral. El Niño events usually develop from west to east rather than in the current East to west model, and the groundwaters are still cool throughout the equatorial Pacific. So these recent events do not necessarily mean a full-scale El Nino Nino as we cross the northern spring, which is where we are in the midst of ENSO’s low-skill “spring predictability barrier” (see Climate.gov’s 2015 interpreter).

According to NOAA's February forecast, LaNiña conditions are expected to last until February to April 2025 (59% chance) and are likely to be a neutral ENSO transition from March to May 2025 (66% chance). For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (August to September to October), Columbia University’s International Climate and Society Institute predicts that LaNiña has a 35% chance, ENSO neutral has a 48% chance and ElNiño has a 17% chance. Elniño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shears, but LaNiña conditions tend to have the opposite effect.

Although El Niño events usually last only one year (usually from the northern fall to the northern spring, like 2023-24), La Niña events usually have two or even three consecutive years of restriction or recurrence, just like from mid-2020 to early 2023.

Arctic sea ice: February minimum range

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Arctic sea ice range in February 2025 is the lowest among the lowest satellite records in 47 years. February marks are the second highest range after January and have a record low range for December. So far, the sea ice range has set new record lows every day, beating the 2018 record low. The Arctic is the warmest February of February 2025, and the winter of 2024-2025 (December to January to January 1) is its warmest winter (see Skeet above).

Antarctic sea ice range hit seasonal lows on March 1, reaching the second highest minimum in 47-year satellite records with scores of 2022 and 2024. The Antarctic won February 2 on February 2, 2025.