She still doesn't – Watt?

Willis Eschenbach's guest post

A day stuck at Nadi Airport in Fiji, waiting for my flight to Brisbane. So…I read it. I found one of the clearest and fascinating articles in Quanta Magazine titled “'Next-level “chaotic” traces the real limits of predictability.

Basically, this seems to be Godel's theorem having Turing stop problems.

It seems to me that their conclusions mean that future climate states are indeed fundamentally unpredictable, but not for the reasons commonly proposed, we cannot specify the starting conditions. It is called the “butterfly problem”, and in a chaotic system, small changes in the starting conditions lead to huge changes in the results.

This problem you can solve this problem by running a lot under different starting conditions and using a series of models of ensembles…although of course, you can't know if the starting conditions or ensemble members have fully explored the parameter space.

But this unpredictability is a whole new kind of thing. They've shown this Even if we know the position and movement of all molecules in the ocean, the future state of the ocean currents is still unpredictable.

I, I'm curious about what others mean for this discovery.

Best for everyone in F1J1,

w.

… reminded me of an old joke. Werner Heisenberg was speeding in his car when he was pulled down by a policeman and he asked, “Do you know how fast you are going?”

“No,” Warner said, “but I know where I am!”

PS – I'm at the home of the Wizard of Oz, this is my first time surfing the Internet with SpaceX Starlink. This is the Ookla Speedtest result…not totally burning, but it works very well.

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