Tens of millions of people in the central and southern U.S. will need to keep the weather in place from Friday to Saturday, as an unusually powerful storm system spreads across the Midwest on the central plains. On Friday, severe weather eruptions including strong tornadoes are expected, including strong tornadoes, and extreme wildfires may play on the prairie in Texas and Oklahoma on Friday.
Even by the usual wild weather standards in March, this event could be historic. The surface on the central plain is expected to be lower on Friday, and will be at or below the central pressure below 975 millibar (HPA). This will make it the strongest low ever in the region.
As of early Friday, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) released the “medium risk” outlook (level 4 of Level 5) on Friday and Saturday, surrounded by a wider range of Level 2 and 3 areas (“slight” and “enhanced” risks, see Figure 1). Strong tornadoes, massive hail and destructive thunderstorms and gusts are all possible during these two days, especially in moderately risky areas. Update: The threat of tornadoes is particularly severe on Saturdays in the southern part of Saturday, where the core of the area on Day 2 was upgraded to “high risk” (Level 5 of Level 5). As the SPC said, “There are many major tornadoes expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, some of which should be long distances and possibly violent.”
Rapid development of bad weather
Throughout the heart of the United States, two distinct high-rise energy cores will tear apart in wider heights. The first more compact impulse (short wave slot) will be from Kansas to Minnesota on Friday, with the lower front pushing eastward along the lows toward the central Mississippi Valley on Friday night.
Along the front and forward, the moisture was expected to flow northward just now, and by Friday afternoon, a thunderstorm development. These scattered storms are expected to consolidate quickly into one or more quall line segments, possibly racing eastward at 50 mph or higher. There are some super battery thunderstorms that may be heading towards the southern end of the risk zone, especially in the evening.
The main threat of severe storms – After dark, they may move from eastern Missouri and Arkansas to western Illinois to western Tennessee, Tennessee and Mississippi will be 70 to 95 MPH and destructive flavors of tornadoes. Some of the twists in the crackdown line may be short-lived, but still can be powerful and harmful (and hard to warn, especially during nighttime and rapid storm movements). Any supercell on this line can produce intense tornadoes and hail, which is as big as a baseball.
The bad weather on Saturday will have a different flavor as the entire height moves eastward from the South Plains to the south. By then, plenty of water will spread northward throughout the region, so storm clusters can develop and dump rainwater. Especially in the moderately risk areas focusing on Mississippi and Alabama, the overall pattern looks favorable for multiple lifespans, spinning superbattery thunderstorms – a type that tends to produce the most intense and longest lifespans.
The remaining storms and clouds on Friday night will have a significant impact on the development of Saturday’s bad weather, including where the frontal lobe ends up.
Friday's storm threat highlights a grim anniversary
Next Tuesday, March 18, happens to be the 100th anniversary of the Tri-State tornado, which remains the record for the deadliest and longest U.S. tornado on record. Twister claimed at least 695 lives by rolling highways from southeast Missouri to southern Indiana (including some areas in danger Friday).
Given the traits of the tri-state tornado compared to others on record, researchers have long wondered if it could be more than one twister. Although tri-state tornadoes have long been thought to have a 219-mile path, subsequent 2013 analysis identified many gaps in the damage path. The study concluded that a tornado might have covered at least 174 miles of the road. The best analog in recent years is probably the four-state superbattery that had a catastrophic outbreak on December 10, 2021. This long-term super battery gave birth to the EF4 tornado, covering 165.7 miles and wreaking havoc in western Kentucky. Only another super battery in the southeast produces an EF3 twister with a 122.7-mile path in parts of western Tennessee and central Kentucky.
These thoughts are provided in the superb multimedia story map on the Tri-State tornado at the National Weather Service Office in Padatu, Kentucky:
Many years ago, we asked the question: If a tri-state tornado was a big storm, why did such a storm not be recorded in decades? Probably the 1925 tornado was a rare event – did it happen only once in hundreds of years? Is it actually caused by periodic superbatteries? Or are we lacking enough information to draw current clear conclusions? Despite all the uncertainty surrounding the 1925 Tri-state Tornado, it is certain that a storm will happen again. The only question is: when and where?
As NWS/Paducah points out, in records that remain in Tri-State tornadoes:
- Murphyborough 234 people died, a record of a disaster for a single community
- 33 people died at De Soto School – The record of this storm (only explosions and gas explosions suffered tolls in high school)
An unusually vast volcanic area on Friday
By far, the largest wildfire in the United States in 2024 and the largest in modern Texas history is the Smokehouse Creek Fire. It tore up more than one million acres of Dexas Panhandle, Texas, and killed two people, causing about $1 billion in damage. Within 24 hours from the afternoon of February 26, most of the fire coverage and damage occurred when strong winds drove the fire through the charred landscape.
Fire-friendly weather will once again be at the high end of the southern plains on Friday, but this time in densely populated areas, further east (see Figure 3 above). As of early Friday, the Storm Prediction Center set up an “extremely critical” area (level 3 and 3) in parts of Oklahoma (including Oklahoma City and Tulsa) and North Texas, close to the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
By Friday afternoon, Lubbock, Texas, had experienced gusts of winds, reaching 70 mph, the strongest F0R in the spring period in the mid-80s.
SPC warned earlier on Friday that “extremely strong winds are very low [relative humidity]and receiving fuel in a large swath of the southern plains, is under an unusual high-end fire threat. ”
Jeff Masters contributed to this article.
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