Recent articles Smithsonian Magazine (SM) titled “Climate change may increase satellite collisions, limiting how many can safely orbit the earth, research finds” claims that human-induced climate change is causing the upper atmosphere to contract, reducing the drag of satellites and space debris, which may lead to more collisions. [emphasis, links added]
This is misleading, if not completely wrong.
Several studies have shown that the main factor affecting the density and temperature of the upper atmosphere (some satellite orbits) is solar activity, not carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
Data from decades of space research confirm that changes in solar radiation, especially ultraviolet (UV) output and solar wind, have a much greater impact on atmospheric density than any CO2-driven effect.
The SM article cited as follows:
“Thermal layer, Starting about 50 miles (80 kilometers) above the Earth's surface, this is shrinking. This is because, as greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, accumulate in the lower atmosphere, they radiate heat into space and cause the upper atmosphere to cool and shrink. ”
This claim exaggerates the role of human greenhouse gas emissions while ignoring the well-documented effects of solar variability.
In the figure below, the Canadian Space Agency's thermal layer is mainly heated by the strong ultraviolet radiation of the sun, and its temperature and density fluctuate significantly with the response of the 11-year solar cycle.
When solar activity is high, the thermal circle expands, increasing the resistance to satellites and space debris. In contrast, during solar minimum, thermal layer contracts.
These natural solar-driven changes completely mask any potential impact of anthropogenic CO2.
A study Journal of Space Research Confirm that the heat layer temperature fluctuations are related to the vast majority of solar energy outputs, rather than greenhouse gases.
Similarly, research Space Weather Science Prove this Solar activity is the main driving force for changes in upper atmosphere density, affecting the satellite's drag far exceeds any CO2-related cooling.
In addition, the report EOS show During a weaker solar cycle, the thermal layer cools and shrinks more than expected.
This is consistent with long-term observations that solar variability determines thermal circle behavior. NASA also believes that the sun drives changes in the thermal circle.
Although many satellites orbit the Earth in the thermal layer Most Earth satellites live in outflows, for example, geostationary satellites in orbit are even 22,500 miles higher than Exosphere.the outermost layer of Earth's atmosphere, which pulls it apart and merges with outer space.
Therefore, the concerns about the thermal circle in the SM article are mainly unquestionable, especially since many satellites in the thermal layer can be lifted to higher orbits with thrusters when needed. The engineers plan for this.
The SM article also failed to consider historical data.
If CO2 is indeed the main driving force for heat coil shrinkage, we hope to see With the increase of carbon dioxide emissions, the atmospheric density has steadily decreased.
instead, We observe clear periodic patterns corresponding to the 11-year solar cycle, rather than industrial CO2 emissions. Among the past solar minimums, such as the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) and the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), similar thermal shrinkage occurred before human activity significantly increased CO2 levels.
By pushing climate change-driven explanations while ignoring the main role of the sun and ignoring the orbits of most satellites Earth, Smithsonian Magazine It distorts what science tells us about the atmosphere and the changes in drivers.
Space fragmentation is a real issue to pay attention to. But CO2 does not produce space debris, nor does it cause collisions with such debris.
Criticizing CO2 emissions on atmospheric changes is a false narrative and disperses the practical issues of how to deal with space debris.
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