No, Smithsonian Magazine, climate change is not the main driver of satellite collision risks – the sun is – Wattwatt?

Recent articles Smithsonian Magazine (SM) titled “Climate change may increase satellite collisions, limiting how many can safely orbit the earth, research finds” claims that human-induced climate change is causing the upper atmosphere to contract, reducing the drag of satellites and space debris, which may lead to more collisions. This is misleading, if not completely wrong. Several studies have shown that the main factor affecting the density and temperature of the upper atmosphere (some satellite orbits) is solar activity, not carbon dioxide emissions. Data from decades of space research confirm that changes in solar radiation, especially ultraviolet (UV) output and solar wind, have a much greater impact on atmospheric density than any CO₂ drive.

The SM article cited as follows: “Thermal layer, Starting about 50 miles (80 kilometers) above the Earth's surface, this is shrinking. This is because, as greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, accumulate in the lower atmosphere, they radiate heat into space and cause the upper atmosphere to cool and shrink. ” This claim exaggerates the role of human greenhouse gas emissions while ignoring the well-documented effects of solar variability.

The thermal layer seen in the Canadian Space Agency graph below is mainly heated by the sun's intense ultraviolet radiation, and its temperature and density fluctuate significantly in response to the solar cycle of 11 years. When solar activity is high, the thermal circle expands, increasing the resistance to satellites and space debris. In contrast, during solar minimum, thermal layer contracts. These natural sun-driven changes completely mask any potential impact of an artificial coco.

A study Journal of Space Research Confirm that the heat layer temperature fluctuations are related to the vast majority of solar energy outputs, rather than greenhouse gases. Similarly, research Space Weather Science It is proved that solar activity is the main driving force for changes in upper atmosphere density, affecting the satellite's drag far exceeds any cooling associated with any Co₂. In addition, the report EOS It shows that during the weaker solar cycle, the thermal layer cools and shrinks more than expected. This is consistent with long-term observations that solar variability determines thermal circle behavior. NASA also believes that the sun drives changes in the thermal circle.

Although many satellites orbit the Earth in a thermal layer, most of the Earth's satellites are located in the outer layer, such as geostationary satellites, orbiting at 22,500 miles, or even 22,500 miles higher than Exposphere, the formation is the outermost layer of the Earth's atmosphere, which is separated and fused with outer space. Therefore, the concerns about the thermal circle in the SM article are mainly unquestionable, especially since many satellites in the thermal layer can be lifted to higher orbits with thrusters when needed. The engineers plan for this.

The SM article also failed to consider historical data. If CO₂ is indeed the main driving force for thermal coil shrinkage, we hope to take a stable, predictable drop in atmosphere density as a stable drop in CO₂ Emissions have increased. Instead, we observe clear periodic patterns corresponding to the 11-year solar cycle rather than industrial-oriented emissions. Among the past solar minimums, such as the Dalton minimum (1790-1830) and minimum (1645–1715), similar thermal layer shrinkage occurred before human activity significantly increased CO₂ levels.

By pushing climate change-driven explanations while ignoring the main role of the sun and ignoring the orbits of most satellites Earth, Smithsonian Magazine It distorts what science tells us about the atmosphere and the changes in drivers. Space debris is a real issue to pay attention to, but₂ Neither space debris will be generated nor will it collide with such debris. Blame the emissions of atmospheric changes is a false narrative and distracts the real issue of how to deal with space debris

Anthony Watts

Anthony Watts is a senior researcher in the Environment and Climate at the Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business in front of and behind the camera since 1978 and currently broadcast forecasts are being made every day. He created a weather graphics demonstration system for television, professional weather instruments, and co-authored a peer-reviewed paper on climate issues. He runs the most viewed website in the world on the award-winning site wattsupwiththat.com.

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