Has Accuweather written the 2025 NOAA project? – Watt?

Julius Sanks

Back in 2005, Accuweather probably joined other commercial weather companies to convince former Senator Rick Santorum to introduce a bill, Chapter 786, the 109th Congress, to prevent NOAA and NWS from sharing data available to commercial vendors. The only support comes from the weather company. Most people think that means paying for weather data that taxpayers already funded – if they can even buy from suppliers. The bill did not receive a co-sponsor; the peer bill did not appear in the house either. It died on the committee.

Does Accuweather try again using the 2025 project?

The Heritage Foundation recently released its 2025 project. This is a huge document introducing the administrative state. It gradually completed the entire federal government and made specific recommendations about each organization. One of the organizations it discusses is the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for weather forecasting. NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Services (NESDIS) purchases and operates environmental satellites. Full disclosure: I spent about a third of my career in engineering and management as a contractor for NOAA. I worked on weather forecasting and weather satellite development projects. The analysis only focuses on the satellite portion of the National Weather Service and NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Services (NESDIS).

Project 2025 proposes comprehensive changes to NOAA. It largely recommends replacing NOAA's business through private sector business efforts. It claims this will result in lower costs and higher quality. But will it? There is little evidence for the 2025 project. Project 2025 also does not have a complete understanding of how NWS works.

A key flaw in the 2025 project is that it emphasizes existing business forecasts. It said the NWS provides data to private companies and complains that the NWS does not use “business partnerships like other institutions.” This should improve weather technology and cost-effectiveness by investing in “business partners of different sizes.” The document provides no evidence, which is correct. It also does not show how this will improve prediction accuracy.

Project 2025 greatly simplifies the role of NWS, how NWS operates and who its customers are. For example, it does not mention the biggest beneficiary of NWS predictions: the public. Watches and warnings are a key part of the local forecasting project 2025 mistakes. Issued by local offices and national centers. For obvious reasons for liability, commercial companies are just watches and warnings on NWS. Will companies like Accuweather be held liable? It seems unlikely. Local offices also interact directly with local government officials, such as county disaster managers, when the situation is necessary. Will commercial companies do this?

NWS is mainly a local organization. Its “front line” are 122 weather forecast offices (WFOs) and 13 river forecast centers (RFCs). WFO operates on 24/7/365 and is spread across 50 states, Guam, Samoa, and Puerto Rico. RFC rents flood forecasts, usually 16 hours a day, 7 days a week, but will be extended to 24 hours if necessary. Are any commercial companies predicting flooding? Will they accept responsibility? WFO and RFC have specific areas of responsibility all over the country. Their meteorologists and hydrologists are familiar with local conditions and use this knowledge to complement spatial and ground sensors as well as models as they establish daily predictions. About 90% of all weather data comes from satellites. The supercomputer model of the NWS depends on satellite data.

The map is found on the NWS homepage and is often issued and canceled watches and warnings as forecasters.

In total, NWS has more than 4,000 employees, of which more than 2,000 are meteorologists. Accuweather has 4-500 and has about 100 meteorologists. It's hard to believe that they can match the NWS's local knowledge.

At the national level, the NWS National Center for Environmental Forecasting (NCEP) has 9 national centers (NC). Everyone is responsible for a specific type of prediction. These centers often trade information to improve forecasts.

•NCEP Central Operations – NWS Information Technology Center

•Aviation Climate Center (AWC) – Aviation Forecast.

•Climate Prediction Center (CPC) – Probability Climate forecasting from the next week to three months; up to one year under certain conditions.

•Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) – Develop and operate numerical prediction models of NWS supercomputers for daily prediction.

•National Hurricane Center (NHC) – Hurricane forecast.

• Ocean Forecasting Center OPC) – Provides marine weather and warning forecasts for the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans.

•Storm Prediction Center (SPC) – Works with tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, lightning, wildfires and winter weather.

•Space Weather Forecasting Center (SWPC) – Observe solar activity.

•Weather Forecast Center (WPC) – Generate forecasts nationwide, such as winter storms and precipitation

After a very serious weather event, the NWS placed the team on the ground to assess the losses. That's how they decide the power of the tornado. Sometimes, after a serious event such as a catastrophic hurricane or a major tornado outbreak, the NWS performs a service assessment to assess its performance. These are available for public use. Will commercial companies do this?

Another question of the 2025 project argument is how the NWS interacts with other government organizations, especially the military. The NWS shares data with the Air Force Global Weather Center, the Naval Meteorological and Oceanography Command, and other organizations. It is difficult to see how the business entities in this interaction contribute value.

Finally, the NWS interacts with forecasting activities in other countries.

Strangely, the 2025 project combines the National Hurricane Center with the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Services (NESDIS), complaining that the data should be introduced while ignoring all other national centers. The NHC focuses on predicting individual hurricanes. Its website provides statistics on the U.S. expectations during the hurricane season. Every year, it releases prospects and mid-season updates for the Hurricane season. Although this addresses climatic conditions, there is strict discussion on the impact of climatic conditions on hurricane development. It cannot solve political climate debate. CPC, which works with the NHC, has released NOAA's seasonal hurricane prospects. These prospects use climatic conditions such as ocean temperature to establish possible hurricane numbers and advantages. It is important to note that, like in all NOAA climate predictions, there is a strict probability of the prospect of a hurricane. That is, the 2024 Atlantic forecast predicts that the probability of normal activity is 85%, with 17-25 named Storms. The NHC's last 2024 monthly summary lists 18 lists called Storms and says that activity for the year is “above normal”.

Nesdis is not part of the NWS. This is a separate NOAA branch. It is confusing why 2025 projects view them as an organization. Nesdis acquires and runs weather satellites and serves as a data storage for NOAA. On the satellite side, it figured out how to turn weather satellite data into information that is useful to the public. It also uses satellite data with EMC to correctly initialize the predictive model of EMC. Like NWS forecasters, the Nesdis satellite office works hard to provide the most accurate information they can provide for public consumption. NESDIS’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) provides deposits for all NOAA scientific data. Project 2025 may refer to NCEI. NCEI has been criticized for adjusting some archival data.

The 2025 project cited the 2020 Accuweather report, asking its research to “find that private companies provide predictions and warnings more reliable than those provided by NWS.” This is misleading. The study doesn't even mention NWS. It compares Accuweather with five other commercial companies. Therefore, commercial companies are better than NWS and are therefore completely unfounded.

I've seen several claims that in 2019, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) published a study that illustrates the value of $73 for every dollar spent on the NWS. This claim is actually in Congress records. I searched in detail and doubted whether it existed. If it was not found online, I contacted AMS to request a copy. Last year, AMS drew a blank but please give me a different, comprehensive study. It did not achieve the same “value-added” results, but concluded that the public was very satisfied with the NWS forecast. It uses a modified temporary valuation method to statistically estimate the public's “will to pay” for NWS forecasts. This basis is a 2022 survey. The basic finding is that people using NWS forecasts are willing to pay about $900 a year in taxes, with a lower limit of about $700 a year and a upper limit of $1,300 a year. Multiply them by the number of people using the NWS forecast (about $114 million), and the result is the total value of the annual value of $795 million to $1.48 billion. NWS FY22 budget request is $1.33 billion. It seems that the public is gaining expectations from the National Weather Service. How many other federal organizations can say this?

The argument for the 2025 project reorganization of the NWS is not convincing. If Doge uses the 2025 project as a guide to analyzing NOAA, its approach needs to be rethinked.

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