A recent article guardian Claims that “climate denials” in Australia are increasing, suggesting skepticism about the claim that climate change is the recent tropical climate Alfred causes climate change. This is nonsense. [emphasis, links added]
“Climate deniers” is a false label, and these skeptics are actually criticizing the common media narrative about climate change and tropical cyclones, which has not made it worse.
In the post, “Former tropical cyclone Alfred ushers amid wave of fresh climate denials when Trump attacks American scientific institutions” Guardian of Australia Climate and Environment Editor Adam Morton wrote:
What are their [skeptical commentators] What is usually not said is that the ocean and atmosphere are obviously warmer than it was a few years ago. Or it means the most intense storms formed in warm conditions carry more energy and more water. Alternatively, as the planet heats up, the conditions that tropical cyclones may form move southward.
There is evidence that this makes tropical cyclones less, but more intense. There are data that show that they tend to last longer. A greater intensity plus time equals an increased risk of injury and casualty. This doesn't mean that every whirlwind or extreme storm is more destructive than it was in the past. This does mean that when a person comes, its potential for energy to cause significant damage is rising, not falling.
The problem is that Morton's claim is not supported by observational data, and his “evidence” appears to be simply climate modeling and cannot match, predict or explain tropical cyclones.
Eric Worrall has published a great post Guardian's Claiming on the climate website wattsupwiththat.com, he noted Real-world data show that Australia's tropical cyclones are not only reducing frequency, but also reducing intensity.
He provides the following graphics:
The severity and frequency of tropical cyclones in Australia are declining as these water temperatures are said to have increased moderately over the past few decades, although sea surface temperature readings are not very extensive and the ocean does not change temperature consistently.
Worrall proposes an explanation of how climate modelers are wrong:
Do climate modelers put the effect before the cause in terms of long-term cyclone frequency and intensity and surface temperature? Because there is a very simple possibility that explains why the temperature of the atmosphere and ocean surface increases, but the frequency and intensity of cyclones are decreasing – the frequency and intensity of cyclones may be inversely related to the ocean surface and atmospheric heat content.
A cyclone is a powerful dissipator of surface heat, and the rise of a cyclone will cause the surface temperature to drop immediately and continuously.
This may or may not be the correct answer. Like some other Climate Realism Posts (here, here, here, for samples), and Morton himself acknowledged in The Guardian Other factors contribute to hurricane formation and strength, such as wind shears.
It is worth noting that Australian tropical cyclones are the same for global cyclones.
Data compiled by meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue shows Major hurricanes (called typhoons in the Pacific) are not becoming more frequent.
Similarly, in the southern hemisphere, The total number of tropical cyclone energy did not increase. (See the picture below)
If there is no trend at all in hurricane frequency, then usually these tropical cyclones usually become more and more frequent, while the number of large storms remains more or less the same, resulting in a higher proportion of major storms.
This does not mean that tropical cyclones are getting worse, it still means that their overall frequency is getting smaller and smaller.
This is nothing at all guardian Their employee alerters can win observation data and lose credibility whenever they repeat misinformation about tropical storms.
It changed a little bit when they saw them admit that whirlwinds wouldn't get more and more frequent, even if they missed the marks elsewhere. It is better to have a gradual transition to truth than nothing.
Top image via ABC New (Australia)/YouTube screenshot
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