The myth of hydrogen economy – Watt?

from masterresource

Seth Cressey – March 27, 2025

“Scientists, engineers and policy makers must reject symbolic solutions and focus on measurable, scalable and scientifically powerful strategies. Not all gases are equally dangerous, and not all solutions are equally wise.”

My new book Without a son, there will be no hydrogen economy It is data-driven criticism, with the growing hype surrounding hydrogen as a future energy source. Its main argument is that while hydrogen may have limited industrial and aerospace applications, the broad vision of the global “hydrogen economy” is fundamentally flawed, technically, economically, and especially environmentally.

In short, hydrogen movement can be compared to “freight science,” a term promoted by physicist Richard Feynman, describing the rigorous efforts of imitating science without interacting with its fundamentals.

The book distributes hydrogen as a promising distribution of miraculous climate solutions. Although hydrogen combustion or the use of fuel cells does not emit carbon dioxide (CO₂), hydrogen itself is not the primary energy source, but rather Energy carrier. It must be produced using other forms of energy (usually through steam methane reform (SMR) or electrolysis). Both methods are energy-intensive and are usually powered by fossil fuels.

Escape from emissions

Electrolysis, even driven by renewable or nuclear energy, requires a lot of electricity and pure water, and inefficiency can undermine its climate benefits. But the most critical defect is not the production pathway, but what happens when hydrogen escapes.

Technically, hydrogen is difficult to contain. As the smallest and lightest molecule in the universe, it leaks effortlessly through seals, valves and pipes. These “emission evasions” are not rare accidents, they are the system features of large-scale hydrogen treatment, losing hydrogen in production, compression, storage, transportation and end use. Once inside the atmosphere, the leaked hydrogen will not remain inert or harmless – it becomes an invisible climate threat.

Environmentally speaking, this is where the most dangerous place is to be affected by hydrogen. Escape hydrogen emissions destroy atmospheric chemistry in a way that expands global warming. Specifically, hydrogen reacts with hydroxyl radicals (OH) in the atmosphere – the same radicals are responsible for breaking down methane, an effective greenhouse gas. When the atmospheric OH is depleted by hydrogen, methane hovers longer, thereby increasing the impact of its warming. Hydrogen also indirectly contributes to the formation of ground ozone and stratospheric water vapor, both of which are important climate fuels.

meaning

Recent research shows that hydrogen can have up to 33 times the global warming potential (GWP) over a 20-year period when taking these indirect effects into account. therefore Without a son, there will be no hydrogen economy Leading to controversial but scientific roots: Although demonized, carbon dioxide is better understood and destructive in key ways than hydrogen.. Although excessive co-co helps long-term warming, it does not deplete hydroxyl radicals and does not significantly alter the life of more efficient greenhouse gases.

My book also records atmospheric Co₂ Positive Externality. It has been shown that the increase in CO₂ levels can enhance plant growth through well-documented fertilization effects. This can increase agricultural yields, promote afforestation, and expand carbon sinks in the biosphere (especially in arid and semi-arid regions). While these benefits cannot justify unregulated emissions, they emphasize the importance of weighing the net climate and ecological impacts of all gases rather than reducing climate policy to a binary category of “clean” and “dirty”.

In contrast, hydrogen does not provide this kind of ecological upward space. Its escape emissions introduce nonlinear, hard to mimic interference into atmospheric chemistry, thus helping warm through complex and poorly understood feedback loops. This not only makes hydrogen inefficient, but also counterproductive. Replacing one kilogram of natural gas with hydrogen (if it causes a moderate leakage) will result in higher net greenhouse emissions, rather than lower. The environmental characteristics of hydrogen are particularly dangerous because it is so easy to evade detection and lacks regulatory oversight in many countries. Once released, it cannot be easily recaptured or offset, and its effects on the atmosphere are long, long after the initial emissions.

Cressey is also very concerned about economic impracticality. Currently, the cost of green hydrogen is between $4 and $7 per kilogram, far exceeding the cost of gasoline in natural gas. Transitioning existing infrastructure – Netherlands, pipelines, industrial boilers, vehicles – will require trillions of dollars in renovation and upgrades. He quoted characters like $4 trillion just to replace the U.S. natural gas pipeline, and another $3 trillion is used to remodel electrical appliances. Despite these enormous investments, the actual contribution of hydrogen to the energy portfolio is still negligible.

Real-world hydrogen demonstration projects (such as China’s Kuca facility, France’s Jupiter 1000 and the U.S. HECA factory) all examined critical shots. These cases often have highly desired patterns followed by cost overruns, technical failures, underperforming and ultimately public subsidies to keep them alive. Electrolysers often fail to handle variable power inputs, fugitive leaks occur frequently, and the promised carbon reduction fails to be achieved. Clasey believes the real climate benefits of these projects have been adjusted to leaks and inefficiencies, at best, negative or marginal.

Cressey's overall message is that hydrogen's attraction is largely aesthetic and ideological. It has become a symbolic fuel – at the point of use, futuristic in the brand, and politically attractive. But when examined through lenses of chemical and atmospheric science, it shows that it is problematic. The hydrogen economy is not only an expensive bypass, but it can worsen all the problems it claims to be solved.

in conclusion

There are other problems with hydrogen, including covering metal over time. All in all, passion for hydrogen will not be initiated through the economy or the environment. The “clean fuel” narrative collapse of the censorship is fully considered, especially once emissions are evaded, atmospheric feedback and CO neglect externalities are fully considered.

Without a son, there will be no hydrogen economy Calls on scientists, engineers and policy makers to reject symbolic solutions and refocus on strategies based on measurable, scalable and scientifically powerful approaches. In doing so, the conversation went from hype to hard evidence. Not all gases are equally dangerous, and not all solutions are equally wise.

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