Vijay Jayaraj
With 1.4 billion energy citizens, India is the center of energy and climate policy geopolitics. As the world's third largest energy consumer, demand is expected to grow the fastest in the next two decades, with subcontinent's choices reverberating well beyond its borders.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that India will account for a staggering 25% of global energy demand growth by 2040, driven by rapid industrialization, urbanization and an expanding middle class.
By 2050, India’s electricity demand alone could represent a large part of the world’s total, and its demand for oil and gas will soar, with the former likely to increase millions of barrels a day to increase global oil consumption. Don’t forget that the country’s ambition for technological development, especially data centers, is expected to push the energy requirement for the stratospheric level.
With the reappearance of Donald Trump's second term hydrocarbon-friendly government, India sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to strengthen its energy security. Trump’s revival of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and its spirit of “drilling, baby, drilling” are perfectly in line with India’s unapologetic pursuit of reliable, affordable energy.
At the UN summit, India is far from bent to the green agenda and is now betting on U.S. hydrocarbons (LNG, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, etc.) to boost its economy.
India's reaction to Trump's LNG revival
The Trump administration's decision to cancel the Biden-era ban on liquefied natural gas export licenses has opened up opportunities for India. “Their decision to lift the ban (Washington) will improve LNG supply and we will resume plans to buy shares or buy LNG in long-term transactions,” said the chairman of India’s state-owned natural gas utility Gail Ltd.
According to IEA, India is already the fourth largest LNG importer in the world with the goal of increasing the share of natural gas in the energy portfolio from less than 7% to 15% by 2030, a goal that calls for increasing LNG imports to about 65 billion cubic meters per year. Domestic production cannot keep pace with demand, and U.S. liquefied natural gas is expected to fill the gap.
Regarding crude oil, India's strategic calculations are also obvious. To alleviate trade imbalances and promote stronger bilateral relations, New Delhi is considering a fixed quota for imports of U.S. crude oil, especially West Texas intermediate products.
India imports 88% of its crude oil, a dependency that exposes it to global price volatility and geopolitical whims. In 2023-24, the United States ranked fifth in crude oil imports, lagging behind Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. U.S. oil comes primarily from the Permian Basin in Texas and can replace one of the top four, which will count as Trump's score on the “America First” agenda.
Why are we above Venezuela, Iran and Russia?
India’s hub for U.S. hydrocarbons is not only about seizing opportunities, but also avoiding risks. Three traditional suppliers – Venezuela, Iran and Russia – are a headache and keeping American energy away.
Take Venezuela as an example: Once an important supplier to India, its goods have gradually decreased under US sanctions since 2019. As imports soar to a four-year peak in 2024. However, Trump now plans to impose a 25% tariff on exports of venezuelan oil from any country.
The instability of Iran's supply is equally unattractive. As tensions in the Middle East flow, India may be tangled in a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran's nuclear program led by the United States.
Meanwhile, Russia is India's complex equation. Moscow has been a lifeline since 2022, providing 40% of Indian crude oil at a huge discount after imposing Western sanctions on Putin's invasion of Ukraine. In the first half of India's fiscal year 2024-25, imports reached 1.91 million barrels.
But geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks are imminent. Ukrainian drones attacked the Kroport Kaskaya pump station in Russia in February, interrupting flow through the Caspian Pipeline Alliance, bringing global supply from Russia up to 380,000 barrels per day.
By contrast, the United States provides stability. No sanctions, no drone strikes – just eager to sell partners' oil and gas.
Energy security is unnegotiable for a country where biomass still uses wood and animal feces for cooking and per capita electricity consumption remains one-third of the global average, and “climate guilt” is a foolish distraction. Energy poverty kills more than the fictional climate crisis.
Meanwhile, Trump’s vision for U.S. energy development provides India with its economic booster, contrary to the hollow promise of climate politics.
The comment was originally American thinker March 27, 2025.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Assistant company2 allianceArlington, Virginia. he He holds a Master of Environmental Science from the University of East Anglia and a Bachelor of Science in Energy Management from Robert Gordon University in the UK, and a Bachelor of Engineering from Anna University in India.
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