Potentially devastating multi-day flooding in the Mississy Valley » Yale climate connection

NOAA's local offices at the National Weather Service did not splurge. “Total rainfall over five days is within the 10-15-inch range of I-40 and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk. Generation flooding with devastating effects is possible.”

Just north, the office in Padaka, Kentucky said: “The biggest rainfall falls, usually without flooding or never flooding, can flood.”

The flood hazard is not only due to the intensity of the high-rise valleys in the western United States, but also through the intensity of high-pressure high-pressure ridges in the southeastern United States. That ridge will prevent the upper storm from moving eastward in a typical progressive manner. Instead, the energy lobes will bend after rain around the stagnant low, along the nearly fixed front of the surface.

Worse, the fire hose for the sultry air quality of the Gulf of Mexico will flow northward into humid moisture, which is close to record levels in early April – about 2°F above the 1991-2020 average.

First: Severe tornado threat

NOAA Storm Prediction Center from southeast Arkansas to southern Illinois the Mississippi River along the narrow and narrow narrow narrow along the high risk of bad weather (level 5, 5) from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday. In all high-risk areas, tornadoes are the biggest concern, although golf ball sizes or larger sizes from northern Texas to northern Illinois may fall on a wider range of kelp.

Several tornado supercell thunderstorms expected to be west of the Mississippi River are expected to be ahead of the cold front across the southern plains, the eastern or northeastern race. One or more of them can drop a fierce long-distance tornado from eastern Arkansas to southeastern Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The region is close to becoming the core of Country 21^Yingshi– The American tornado, as the atmospheric conditions of the tornado, tends toward the east in our warming climate. It is also a vulnerable area, with many residents living in mobile or manufactured houses scattered in rural areas.

Read: How to Make Your Home More Tornado-Resilient

In this emerging hotspot, three of the four deadliest tornadoes in the U.S. have occurred in this new hotspot:

• The Western Kentucky tornado on December 10, 2021. On the enhanced Fuji scale, the EF4 is rated as EF4, and this long-lived Twister claimed 57 lives in its three-hour, 165 miles of post-dark rear rampage. Mayfield and Dawson Springs in western Kentucky were particularly hit.
• In the south and east of the same outbreak alone, the EF3 tornado killed 17 people in the December 11, 2021 CST, mainly Bowling Green, Kentucky.

• March 24, 2023 Western Mississippi Tornado. This EF4 tornado hit the rolling fork and Silver City in the Mississippi Delta, enjoying at least 17 lives, with an estimated maximum wind speed below the EF5 range of 195 mph. (See our recent post on how to complicate tornado ratings when augmented Fujiya assesses family damage.)

By this weekend, widespread flooding is becoming increasingly likely

One of the most extensive flooding in the United States in recent years has begun on Wednesday, April 3 and extends to the next weekend. The NWS Weather Forecast Center has issued modest flood risk (level 4, totaling 4) for four consecutive days, which is Wednesday to the early hours of Sunday, an unusual, if not unprecedented (Figure 1). The center also released a concentrated, high-risk area on Thursday centered around the Mississippi River intersection in Ohio, from western Kentucky to northeastern Arkansas, where frontal lobe area is expected to be parked.

In the next few days, a large amount of atmospheric moisture will flow northward from the bay to the Mississippi Delta, fueling epic rainfall as the flow hits the “stalk” of the frontal area. Meanwhile, the upper impulse will rotate around the western low, possibly forcing one or two oscillations along the frontal area, just like waves traveling along the jump rope along the jump rope. Heavy rain is expected to fall northward into the corn belt later Thursday. Another wave is expected to extend heavy rain south and west to Arkansas by Friday, before returning to the upcoming mid-point location by Saturday.