According to the last seasonal forecast of the Hurricane Prediction Team published by Phil Klotzbach, published by Phil Klotzbach. The cyclone energy (ACE) is 155, 26% higher than the average.
This figure is higher than the long-term averages of the 1991-2020 period, which registered 14.4 storms with name, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 hurricanes of great intensity and an ACE of 123. Last year there were 18 storms with name, 11 hurricanes, five hurricanes of great intensity and an ace of 162. In the last decade, only two hurricane seasons in the Atlantic 1991-2020: 2022 and 2015.
CSU's forecast also offers a greater possibility that strong hurricanes are exposed to Earth in the United States: 51% (long-term average: 43%). Furthermore, it has a 26% chance of a strong hurricane that affects the East Coast or the Florida Peninsula (average long-term: 21%) and the Gulf Coast (average long-term: 27%) is 33%. For the Caribbean, there is an estimated 56% chance that at least one intensity hurricane will pass through the region (long-term average: 47%).
CSU predictions are based on statistical models developed from more than 40 years of historical data from Atlantic hurricanes and are equipped with dynamic models of four prediction centers: ECMWF (European Model), UKMET, UKMET, Japan Meteorological Service and the European-Center for Central Climate Change (CMCC) (CMCC).
The temperatures in the sea surface in the major hurricane development areas between Africa and Central America are about 0.5°C (0.9°F) higher than the average of the western semi-average, but 0.5°C (0.9°F) lower than the average of the eastern central average. Almost all tropical waves in Africa travel through major development areas, which resulted in 85% of the intensity hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, with 60% of all storms bearing their names. During hurricane season, the ocean’s surface temperature is higher than the average in the region, and they usually favor active seasons as long as there is no El Niño phenomenon. Conversely, hurricane season in the Atlantic is more likely to be below average when temperatures are colder than normal. (Photo source: Tropicalities.com).
The CSU team cites two main reasons why it predicts that the average is above average by 2025:
This fall, it may be neutral ENSO conditions or a weak girl.
La Niña conditions have been weak in the Eastern Pacific region in recent months, with most models being predicted neutral or weak La Niña conditions for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA's Climate Forecasting Center predicted in its latest consultation on March 13 that there are 49% chances for neutral conditions, 38% chances for LaNiña, and 13% chances for ElNiño.
Due to the increase in high-rise winds on the tropical Atlantic Ocean, El Niño phenomenon favors slower than usual Atlantic hurricane season, which tear apart the storm (higher vertical wind shears). In contrast, positive hurricane season is more likely when neutral or La Niña conditions are present. Since 1950, the U.S. hurricane has been more than twice as likely to land in La Niña year compared to El Niño.
Ocean Temperature Mode
Currently, the sea surface temperatures in the western and central Atlantic Oceans and the eastern subtropical Atlantic Oceans are much higher than normal. In contrast, in the eastern tropical Atlantic, they are close or slightly below average (Figure 1). The temperature increase in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea is often associated with what is observed before the Atlantic Season.
As usual practice, the CSU team includes the following standard warnings:
“Remember only the residents of coastal areas with only hurricane wild lands to make them active. No matter the level of predicted activity, precautions and preparations must be taken for each season.”
Similar years
In the first few months (January, February and March), five years of atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected, which were “similar years” to the 2025 hurricane season. These years occurred in the second year after the El Niño incident and the conditions for the girl were proposed in January to February of the corresponding year. Furthermore, their sea surface temperatures are higher than averages in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Oceans.
Similar years are:
- 1996 (There are 13 names of storms, 9 hurricanes and 6 strong intensity hurricanes)
- 1999 (There are 12 names of storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 strong intensity hurricanes)
- 2006 (There are 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 strong intensity hurricanes)
- 2008 (16 storms, named 8 hurricanes and 5 strong intensity hurricanes)
- 2011 (There are 19 names of storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 strong intensity hurricanes)
- 2017 (There are 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 strong intensity hurricanes)
The average activity in these years was 14.5 storms with the name of 7.8 hurricanes, 4.7 intensity intensity and 154 aces, with activity levels above average. Among these similar years, 2017 was particularly outstanding, with a Category 4 hurricane playing land in the United States. Harvey, Elma and Maria. However, 2006 was a quiet season, with no hurricanes playing with the land anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
Warning: April forecast for hurricane season is barely accurate
On average, when assessed using metrics, the forecast of hurricane season activity in April has little or no accuracy or even negative accuracy. Despicable Square Skill Score. This does not mean that a particular prognosis is incorrect, but overall, the prognosis based solely on historical weather may be the same or more precise.
April’s forecasts must face the so-called spring predictability barrier. During this month, the Elniño/Girl phenomenon usually changes from one state to another, which makes it difficult to predict whether boys, girls or neutral conditions in the next hurricane season.
In April 2024, CSU predicted a very active season: 23 storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 hurricanes, high intensity, with a trump card of 210. The prognosis is very successful, as the real activity is 18 storms with 11 hurricanes, 5 hurricanes, 5 hurricanes, high intensity and ace and 162 aces, but the premise for April is 2022.
The next prognosis for CSU will be published on June 11, and deserves special attention, as predictions made in late May and early June have shown considerable accuracy over the years.
Other predictions prepared:
- NOAA will release its first seasonal hurricane forecast by the end of May 2025.
- UK Private Tropical Business Risk, Inc. will broadcast its next prognosis on April 7 during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. His first forecast, published on December 10, is expected to have 15 storms, seven hurricanes, seven hurricanes, three strong hurricanes and 129 ACE Intex hurricanes, which shows the accuracy of this expectation, and their accuracy is only expected.
Bob Henson contributed to this article.
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