Imminent power austerity facing the United States – Wattwat?

No one knows

Paul Homewood

H/T Hugh Sharman

Major U.S. power grid operators are raising alarms about the looming capacity tightening.

Power has a story:

“Six major U.S. power grid operators have issued a unified alarm about the upcoming capacity tightening, warning that the pace and scale of explosive demand (including from data centers, manufacturing and electrification) has caused pre-qualified errors and accelerated retirement and transmission constraints for generators’ retirement agencies.

exist At a hearing of the Housing Energy and Business Subcommittee on March 25, Top U.S. power systems are under increasing pressure and the ability to maintain reliable power services may be shaken without urgent structural reforms. Their information is abnormally straightforward: demand is accelerating, supply lags, and current tools may not be enough to bridge the gap.

Read the full story here.

All ten regional grids appear to face the same problems of increasing demand and adjustable capability. For example, Ercot, which operates the power grid in Texas, predicts that peak demand will increase from 86 gw to 106 GW by 2030.

PJM in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest expects peak demand to grow by 47% over the next 15 years, while California's CAISO will grow by 33% over the next decade.

The United States still relies on half of its power in natural gas and coal:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/daily_generation_mix/us48/us48

Just like in this country, the United States relies entirely on gasoline to fill the gap when demand surges and wind and solar outputs fall:

Please note that for this seven-day period, the wind output ranges from 32 gw to 90 gw. This lie says that the wind always blows somewhere. In 2023, the U.S. wind energy is 148 GW, an average of 33%, so the usage of 32 GW is about 20%. There will undoubtedly be fewer weeks.

Meanwhile, solar energy is more than just irrelevant.

Looking closely at Texas, we found that the capacity of coal has dropped by 7.5 GW over the past decade, partly being added by 4.3 GW of natural gas. However, per capita consumption increased by 12% during the same period:

Texas needed most of its gas power during cold gusts in February, when wind and solar energy disappeared:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64764

The same situation is being played all over the country. Even in sunny California, they need gasoline to catch up on demand for summer and winter when the sun sets. (Note the contribution of battery storage is almost impossible to measure.)

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/regional/regional/reg-cal

The U.S. power grid has been neglected for many years, all with a naive belief that reliable coal and gas can be replaced by wind and solar energy. Anti-fossil fuel regulations have already shut down coal-fired power plants too early and discourage investment in new gas plants has exacerbated this.

The looming tightening may be worse than the grid operators think.

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