Transcript:
Climate scientists don't have crystal balls. However, they do have climate models that can provide significantly accurate predictions for global warming, and have been doing so for decades.
Zeke Hausfather is a research scientist at Berkeley Earth. He studied climate models dating back to the 1970s and evaluated their predictions on how carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affects how global temperatures increase.
Hausfather: “Many of the early models ultimately proved the foresight of predicting what actually happened in the years since publication. … Of the 17 we’ve seen, 14 of them were almost blobs.”
Today’s climate model is much higher, he said.
They combine extensive data on land cover, air circulation patterns, earth rotation and carbon pollution to create local projections for heat, precipitation and sea level rise.
They simulated a series of scenarios.
Hausfather: “…this reflects all possible futures we know, in this world where we quickly cut emissions, one we rapidly increase emissions and everything in between.”
So, these models provide reliable predictions based on each situation… However, which result becomes a reality will depend on the steps people take to reduce carbon pollution and limit climate change.
Editor's Note: Zeke Hausfather is a former contributor to Yale's climate links.
Report Credit: Sarah Kennedy/Chavobart Digital Media
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