A recent article independent“How will the climate crisis push up the price of Easter chocolates”, claiming that cocoa bean production is threatened by climate change, which is why prices are rising. This is wrong. [emphasis, links added]
independent Citing a study using novels, recently developed AI models predict cocoa production in various countries rather than studying full images and real-world data, including cocoa production in neighboring countries.
As far as cocoa prices rise, this is not due to shortages caused by climate change, but government policies.
independent Claiming extreme high calories are increasing the risk of crops and “the past two decades in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Ecuador and Indonesia, independent Climateai, a machine learning company in California, has reaped results in modeling. As global temperatures rise, this effect only gets worse. ”
This AI modeling “has been around for the past few months and is specifically designed to create accurate prospects for more data screening environments such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire[.]transparent
The company claims it contains historical weather data, current satellite data, soil information and terrain, and “local agricultural knowledge”[.]transparent
They use model output to declare that cocoa production and production have declined due to climate change, or at least at risk of “at risk” decline.
These models are specifically designed to independentand the company's work is proprietary because it makes it impossible for them to know whether they tend to always mislead the flawed climate model of agricultural production-because Climate Realism It has been pointed out many times for crops around the world.
It is illustrated that because the models are new and proprietary, their results lack transparency and it is not recommended that the model be peer-reviewed or validated by testing by external researchers.
The companies behind proprietary AI modeling essentially require the world to trust its discoveries with blind beliefs – this is not how science works.
In contrast to unverified model output, real-world data often suggest that cocoa yield and yield increased during recent slight warming.
Interestingly, the data show that although Cocoa plantations in Kokova are decreasingAccording to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN FAO). (Please refer to the picture below)
independent Only acknowledge the decline in yields, but ignore The country's total output hit a record high in 2023. Production has increased by 469% since 1980.
This indicates that the amount of cocoa at each farm may be declining, [from] Older farms, but more online.
If climate change is the cause of the troubles of Côte d'Ivoire, it can be expected that farms in nearby countries will suffer similar pain due to the prevalence of weather.
However, Ghana's earnings level has not experienced the decline in Côte d'Ivoire. (Please refer to the picture below)
Another country threatened by AI research is Ecuador. Data from the FAO show that their production and earnings records have been consistent. Ecuador has broken previous records six times since 2015. (Please refer to the picture below)
So, what is the cost of cocoa production that has suffered such high cocoa prices?
The answer can be found at the end independentArticles it mentions [how] Ghana's government has shackles on cocoa pricing, noting that last year, “the Cocobod controls the salary of cocoa farmers in the country, announcing that it will increase the amount of cocoa farmers by 45%[.]transparent
Blogger Jo Nova has an article about this, which has been devastating to the sirens’ narrative. She pointed out Ghana's fixed price is the world's second largest cocoa producer and is the main driver of the problem of rising prices last year:
The African government has determined the price of cocoa for decades, forcing poor farmers to work hard for their suffering and keep huge profits for themselves. Not surprisingly, even with wild prices soaring, Ghanaian farmers are leaving the industry to smuggle crops (because they get better prices). They didn’t plant new trees, had no money to buy fertilizer, nor did they try new varieties. Their children don’t want to cultivate cocoa, but their yields fall on old, morbid plantations.
So it is surprising that control of the socialist government has ruined the industry, and they are now scrambling to reintegrate the pieces. Things are so desperate, The Ghanaian government raised the price of cocoa by 58% last April and then raised the price of cocoa by 45% last September to reduce smuggling. (The government has lost too much money). Once last year, it was estimated that one-third of the country's crops were thrown to smugglers. In the following months, farmers ard accumulated their beans, hoping that the government must give them another rise. Just for everyone's chaos.
independent Smuggling is simply impossible.
Similar results are also found in Indonesia. After the Indonesian government adopted various UN climate and sustainable development goals and began to harvest the adopted international aid, it began to encourage its farmers to adopt “sustainable” practices, including reducing the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and focusing on the “quality” of cocoa clusters.
Results: After continued growth in production from the 1980s to the early 2000s, production began to decline, and soon thereafter it fell.
After the initial decline, cocoa production has basically been fixed in Indonesia since the country signed the Indonesian compact in 2013, with a focus on improving cocoa quality, the use of natural resources and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
After 2018, the plan was over and the money was running out. The damage has caused the cocoa yield and yield never returned to pre-ripening levels. (See the picture below)
Crops are always produced in good years around the world, especially in places where government intervention, improper resources and fixed prices make it harder for farmers to invest in new cocoa plants when others grow, while soil and trees are exhausted, thus reducing harsh weather seasons.
Blaming climate change on rallying support for green policies is misleading by omitting other relevant factors and has a counterproductive effect on increasing cocoa production and production.
Top photo by Kyle Hinkson
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