In recent editorial Mountain The author claims that “climate change may give American corn growers, insurance companies: Researching a huge blow”, claiming that climate change will lead to a sharp increase in crop insurance claims: 22% growth by 2030 and 29% growth by the middle of the century. [emphasis, links added]
The existing evidence refutes this claim.
There are no data that corn crop losses are or will increase due to changes in climatic conditions.
These terrible predictions are based on flawed models, untested assumptions, and over-reliance on speculative climate scenarios, rather than actually observed corn production data, which have regularly set new records during the recent modest warming period.
As shown in Figure 1, the average temperature in the United States has indeed risen slightly over the past 40 years.
But, that's no As climate alerters often suggest, it leads to a decline in agricultural productivity.
In fact, During the same period, U.S. corn yields have steadily increasedPurdue University plots the data, as shown in Figure 2 below, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The good news is that corn cereal production in the United States has steadily increased since the 1950s, at a rate of nearly two bushels per year, according to USDA data.
The current data does not support the article's warning for “more intense droughts, longer heat waves and more catastrophic floods”.
As detailed in this climate realism article, higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations enhance photosynthesis, especially benefiting crops such as corn.
The USDA reported that corn production has more than doubled since the 1980s, indicating resilience and adaptability of American agriculture.
Seed genetics, better agricultural practices and technological improvements have all contributed to making farmers more capable than ever to deal with weather changes.
Mountain The article relies heavily on predictions generated by “AI-driven tools” created by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Arkansas.
But, as many articles emphasize Climateismincluding this detailed analysis, Over time, climate models repeatedly fail to accurately predict weather patterns or crop outcomes.
The notion that insurance claims will increase due to the increase in extreme weather events is speculative at best, especially [because] Data shows that there is no obvious trend in weather deterioration.
Extreme weather events that may affect corn production or output have not become more frequent or severe in recent decades. The current data does not support the article's warning about “more intense droughts, longer heat waves and more catastrophic floods.”
As discussed in this article, there is no clear trend to increase in drought frequency or intensity in the United States by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other authorities.
In addition, flood data contradicts the claims of alarmers. There is no trend of rising severity or frequency of floods nationwide.
The recommendations made by the authors to change farm policies by inspiring customs such as customs covering crops and rotations sound attractive, but even if they admit that this will reduce annual yields.
Imposing such policies based on speculative climate risks will harm farmers who they claim to protect and reduce productivity in the name of theoretical resilience.
In essence, such policies will incentivize inefficiency.
Additionally, there is no evidence that if drought or flooding does become more frequent or severe, planting crops, rotating crops or other so-called elastic measures will avoid losses. Instead, alternative crop losses will only have insurance expenses.
Surprisingly Mountain Such articles will be published based on shaky, unverified models without checking for real-world data trends on agricultural productivity and extreme weather.
Over the past four decades, even with a humble warmth, American farmers have flourished.
This editorial embodies the bad study and blind acceptance of climate shockism that is often adopted by news today. Rather than challenging suspicious claims, Mountain They show them to spread fear and misinformation to the public.
Top photo of Hannah Shedrow on Unsplash
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