When it comes to climate change, to quote one of Al Gore's favorite proverbs, the biggest challenge is not what we don't know, but what we determine, but what we know, but it's not. [emphasis, links added]
Two new studies show that the Earth's climate is much more complex than often acknowledged, reminding us of the importance of pragmatic energy and climate policy.
One of them was led by researchers at Tangji University in China and found that after years of ice cap drop, Antarctica saw a “surprising turn”: record destruction accumulation ice.
Since the launch of the first Grace satellite in 2002, the total mass of glaciers in Antarctica has steadily declined.
However, new research finds a downward trend from 2021 to 2023.
The melting ice in Antarctica helps global sea levels rise, so the reversal of melting slows it down. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of Antarctic ice is essential.
The recent Antarctic shift has only caused a small dent in overall ice loss in 2022, but surprisingly.
A similar change was found on the other side of the planet in the second new paper (now in peer review).
“The loss of Arctic sea ice coverage has slowed significantly over the past two decades.” The document's American and British authors wrote.
They believe that the “pause” in the Arctic sea ice decline may last for decades.
Together, these two studies remind us that the global climate system is still unpredictable, and it violates the simple expectation of moving in only one direction.
In 2009, it was a book. John Kerry warns that by 2013, the Arctic Sea will be ice-free: “Scientists tell us that we have a 10-year window (if that) – before catastrophic climate change, our window becomes inevitable and irreversible,” he said.
Today, six years after the 10-year window closed, even if the planet does continue to warm due to the burning of fossil fuels, catastrophic climate change has not happened.
Guerrillas in climate debates should learn from Kerry’s Crying Wolf.
On the one hand, climate change based on the most extreme claims leads to suspicion when the promised Apocalypse does not happen as planned.
On the other hand, studies like two surprising polar ice papers show climate complexity, but don’t prove that climate change is not real and serious.
Today, policy makers seem to be rushing toward myopia at all costs to pure energy realism.
However, their newly discovered pragmatism should still embrace economic decarbonization and reduce energy costs, expand global access to energy and ensure a safe and reliable energy supply.
These multiple goals are not always consistent, which is why energy policy is so challenging.
We know that humans affect climate systems in many ways – partly greenhouse gas emissions, and also through land management, air pollution and vegetation dynamics.
On planetary scale, the net effect of these changes is the warming of the planetary system.
However, the expected regional and local consequences are much more difficult, and the uncertainty of uncertainty means that adaptation to climate variability and change is attributed to risk management as we balance competitive goals.
Fortunately, pragmatic energy policy has a lot of low-hanging fruits – expanding nuclear power and accelerating coal is a great place.
The surprises revealed by two new papers on polar ice are also reminding us that we need to prepare for unexpected behavior in the climate system regardless of the root cause of the change.
History tells us that the climate will suddenly change and have a profound impact on society.
Top photo of Hans-Jurgen Mager
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