Another harsh weather after a fatal tornado on Friday » Yale climate connects

On Monday, May 19, the country's deadliest tornado has not yet ended, with 100 days of distortion reported for five days and at least two more days of severely severe weather.

As multiple high-rise storms crossed the wavy frontal area, the activity moved from the Upper West to Friday (38) to Kentucky (38) on Thursday, May 15 (31 preliminary tornado reports), and then reloaded Colorado and Kansas (31) on Sunday (31). The back-to-back outbreak puts more pressure on the already-working National Weather Service, which has been keeping its office staff after Digg triggered budget cuts, layoffs and early retirement.

On Monday morning, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center placed parts of Central and Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas at moderate risk of inclement weather (level 5, total of level 5). Strong tornadoes are possible, but the setup is what forecasters often call “messy.” While there are enough wind shears and unstable air to support a tornado superbattery thunderstorm, a warm mid-layer or “hat” usually makes the number of storm limits limited. This means there may be many super batteries, some interfering with each other, and/or creating storm complexes that are harder to predict and track. Some areas may be hit by the bad weather of two quick-moving rounds: a batch of superbikes in the morning and afternoon are on the north-south trunk line, while in the late afternoon and evening, when the trunk line and the approaching cold front head are heading east. The cold upper air will help stimulate the threat of giant hail.

Tuesday’s event will be partially shaped by the remnants of Monday night’s clouds and storms. The biggest threat – marked by NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, increased risk (level 5, total 3) – is likely to be in the southernmost Kentucky, western and central Tennessee, as well as Northern Mississippi and Alabama. The model suggests that the activity may start again in the afternoon, with many storms starting, including some tornado superbatteries, followed by strong Qualline segments, which may produce embedded tornadoes and destructive drop winds.

The nationwide tornado threat is expected to be downshifted on Wednesday, while there are relatively quiet days in the game. Late May is still the peak season, so bad weather on the southern plains may start to appear by next week.

At least 24 people died in southeast Kentucky and the St. Louis area

On Monday, grim investigations into damages remained underway in southeast Kentucky, including tough towns in Somerset and London. At least 19 people were killed in the area through a fast-moving late-night tornado, both of which were spurred by a long-lived super-battery thunderstorm that emerged in southeastern Missouri and embraced Kentucky’s southern border. The storm spun across hundreds of miles from west to east, laying eggs along the way. Although this is a vicious storm, forecasters also call it “good behavior” because it follows such a stable track and maintains strong power for hours.

The tornado watch is far ahead in the storm, with the National Weather Services Office in Jackson, Kentucky issued a tornado warning, at least 25 minutes ahead of schedule for Somerset and London. Given the staff shortage forced the Jackson office (with several others nationwide) to close operations from 1 to 7, it's no doubt the first time in decades that the National Weather Service Forecast Office had to abandon regular 24/7 talent.

Special arrangements will be made to fill overnight shifts when active weather is expected, which is the case on Friday night, chief meteorologist Christian Cassell told East Kentucky University's public radio station WEKU.

“The biggest thing we want to emphasize is: if there is weather, we will staff it,” Kassel said. “Failure is not an option.”