The hurricane season begins on June 1 and above-average activities are expected. But major U.S. agencies protect lives and property from these destructive storms – the National Atmospheric and Ocean Administration, NOAA, the Federal Emergency Management Association, or FEMA – in unprecedented chaos. Chaos could damage the accuracy of hurricane forecasts in 2025, as well as the preparation and response to disasters.
NOAA is transferred due to huge personnel losses
NOAA’s massive staff losses caused by shootings from probation employees, acquisitions of the Governor and early retirement have left at least eight of the 122 National Weather Service offices unable to operate all day. Due to employee losses, the average air balloon sound (usually the most important component of reliable model weather forecasting (Figure 1)) has been lost from 18% of the upper air stations in the country. Some locations have been reduced to once a day release and there is a location that has no release at all. The Washington Post reported that 17% of U.S. balloon launches could have happened since March 20, mainly due to the loss of NOAA staffing. The biggest data loss is in the Midwest U.S., which will lead to a significant reduction in hurricane forecasts in some cases. It is difficult to quantify the exact degradation because researchers need to conduct “data denial” studies that can inform us that we have been fired or stretched too thin to complete the required research.
Although we can expect that the National Hurricane Center will order special balloon launches in the event of a hurricane landing, the local National Meteorological Services Office will comply with the local National Meteorological Services Office. (And note that causes such as maintenance issues, nearby thunderstorms are often cancelled due to unexpected reasons. This overconfidence can lead to delays in evacuation decisions and failure to take appropriate measures to protect lives and property.
In addition, losses from NWS staff may affect local hurricane forecasts and warnings provided by some NWS offices to coasts along the hurricane. In Houston, the situation is particularly serious, with the office’s website listing 11 job openings of 25 employees – less than 44%.
As Alan Gerard wrote in April in his excellent Balanced Weather Substack feed, “The NWS office in Houston – one of the largest metropolitan areas in the country with tremendous vulnerability to hazardous weather – will soon be without any permanent management staff: Their meteorologist-in-charge, warning coordination meteorologist, science and operations officer, and electronics system analyze will all be retired by the end of April. While I have no doubt that remaining NWS leadership will do everything possible to mitigate the impact of this situation, especially as we approach hurricane season, not the “strategic” of any permanent managers.”
Many NWS offices serving coastal areas affected by hurricanes have staff lists showing their current vacancies. As of May 15, 2025, this is the level of understaffing listed in each office. (The actual staffing shortage may differ from the numbers listed on the website, especially in understaffed offices, who do not have time to update their pages.)
Houston, Texas: 44% understaffed (11 of 25 vacancies)
Miami, Florida: 25% understaffed (6 out of 24 positions)
Key West, Florida: 19% of understaffed (4 out of 21 positions)
Tampa Bay, Florida: 29% understaffed (7 out of 24 positions, including their meteorologist leader)
Jacksonville, Florida: 9% of understaffed (two out of 23 positions, two out of the top three leadership positions)
Charleston, South Carolina: 22% of understaffed (5 of 22 positions)
Wilmington, NC: 21% of understaffed (5 out of 24 positions)
Newport, North Carolina: 14% of understaffed (3 out of 22 positions)
Wakefield, Virginia: 0% of understaffed (zero for 22 positions)
Boston, Massachusetts: 19% of understaffed (5 out of 26 positions)
New Orleans, Louisiana: No General Staff Information given, but one leadership position is not filled: Science and Operations Officer
Lake Charles, Louisiana: 15% of understaffed (3 out of 20 positions, reported by The Washington Post)
Corpus Christi, Texas: 11% of understaffed (two out of 19 positions)
Brownsville, Texas: 9% of understaffed (two out of 23 positions)
Puerto Rico: 21% of understaffed (5 out of 24 positions)
Honolulu, Hawaii: 10% of understaffed (3 out of 29 positions)
Employees in NWS regional offices are also losing leadership. In the southern region, seven of the seven highest positions and three of the six top positions in the western region. Fortunately, the National Hurricane Center performed better than many NWS offices: Only 4% of the staff listed were understaffed (3 out of 73 positions), and fewer than those listed in September 2024.
A recent NWS effort has sought to fill 155 “key” positions in understaffed offices through transfers from other offices. This will be an exercise for “robbing Peter and paying Paul” as the total number of vacancy in the NWS will remain the same.
FEMA is not ready during hurricane season
When Hurricanes Helene and Milton were more devastating due to climate change, the Southeast destroyed last fall, with the Federal Emergency Management Agency workers or FEMA overseeing the government’s efforts to save survivors and help recover. FEMA is also key to strengthening the country's long-term resilience efforts, such as improving flood-prone houses and installing drainage projects.
But, according to a May 15 report from CNN, an internal agency review said, “As FEMA turns into a smaller footprint, the intentions for this hurricane season are not clear. So, FEMA is not ready yet.”
According to CNN's story, FEMA “has lost about 30% of full-time employees to lay off and around acquisitions, including some of the most experienced and knowledgeable senior leaders.” In addition, Trump officials are discussing the threshold for states to qualify for federal disaster aid, with both Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem advocating a substantial reduction in FEMA or eliminating it.
On May 21, CBS reported that David Richardson, an agent FEMA administrator with no emergency management experience, canceled the agency’s strategic plan, a policy document that forms the “organizational backbone” of FEMA.
FEMA’s Office of Resilience Strategy is targeted at the goal of phase-out, “existing in figuring out how to maximize the effectiveness of public spending on projects that build resilient infrastructure that can withstand disaster events.” “Without that guidance star, FEMA will be in categories rather than actually trying to mitigate future damage.” The official compared its evacuation to “people who rely solely on emergency rooms for health care rather than access to preventive care.”
The chaos at FEMA could lead to slower disaster response, longer waits for spending and reduced resilience efforts to implement, ultimately increasing the damage to extreme weather enhanced by climate change. According to the Washington Post, as of April 1, there has been a backlog of “unusual” disaster declaration requests. Additionally, dismissals may prevent updating the agency’s apparently outdated flood map, which is essential to determine flood risks and insurance rates.
The decline in FEMA's capability in the upcoming hurricane season has greatly reduced the massive cuts of Americorps, which has provided important disaster recovery services in the past. According to Grist, in April, “Americorps put 85% of the 500 employee leave on budget, canceling nearly $400 million in grants. The move effectively ended the service of an estimated 32,000 Americorps workers nationwide.”
Most importantly: With climate change already making the most powerful hurricanes stronger, and in the United States is now in the historic landings of high-end Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes, the serious flaws of NOAA and FEMA and the upcoming hurricane season represent serious life risks and property.
Bob Henson contributed to this article.
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