Hurricane warning flew eastward along the Mexican Pacific coast from Acapulco to Puerto Rico as it rapidly strengthened the steam from Hurricane Erick, reaching the expected Thursday morning landing. Depending on whether it hits the coast at sharp angles or glides along the coast, Eric may wreak heavily at coastal stretches where powerful direct landings are rarely seen.
As of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Erick had a maximum sustained wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) and a central pressure of 984 MB, driving at 8 mph (13 km/h). Satellite images show Erick formed an eye on Wednesday evening, surrounded by eyes with strong thunderstorms and cold clouds. Erick has strengthened 45 mph (72 km/h) in 24 hours since 8 a.m. Tuesday, with Erick surpassing the fast intensity threshold of 35 mph (56 km/h). The first Hunter Hunter Hunter that hit the storm was taking samples of Eric Wednesday morning.
Predict Eric
The wind shears are expected to be light (5-10 knots) until logging in, which is conducive to rapid strengthening. The waters along the Erick path are not very deep, so the total ocean heat content along the Eric path will be limited Wednesday night, but sea surface temperatures will be warmer – close to 30 degrees Celsius (86°F) – so Erick is expected to strengthen further and maybe keep landing. In an abnormally humid atmosphere with medium and high relative humidity of 80-85%, strengthening will help strengthening.
On Wednesday, 11 a.m. ET, the National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Erick to peak Category 3 storm on Landfall on Thursday morning; the NHC warned that the hurricane could become stronger. Climate Change Index at the Climate Center: Oceans show that ocean temperatures along Eric are close to average and have not greatly improved human-induced climate change.
Mexico's unusual early hurricane landing
Like other tilting methods, such as hurricanes that go north to the northeast parallel to Florida's Gulf Coast, only a slight change in direction will have a big impact where Erick is ashore. Most of the hurricanes at Erick's location end up staying overseas, especially early in the season. In fact, in modern records in June and July, no major hurricanes made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast (see Figure 1). Even in August, there was only one major landing in the Pacific region of Mexico: Hurricane Kiko, which hit the southernmost Baja Peninsula on August 27, 1989 at the intensity of the Category 3. km/h). In the past 75 years, 16 hurricanes have made landfall in Mexico before July, with only three striking at Category 2 intensity, and the last time in late May 2022, Hurricane Agatha hit the town of Puerto Rico, which was also the hurricane that hit Erick (H/T), h/t to h/t to Michael lowry for for for for for for for for for for for Michael).
The NHC's prediction track took Erick at a rather sharp angle on Thursday morning to an angle of about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of Acapulco, which was punished by the most expensive hurricane in the record for Category 5 Otis (Mexico) Hurricane (Mexico). Short-range high-resolution models designed for intensity predictions are often less reliable for orbital predictions, but they agreed that Erick would land east of Acapulco, which is likely along the sparsely populated coast of West Oaxaca state.
These high-resolution models still differ in the clarity of the Erick method, which will affect the location and intensity of the login. If Erick takes a more direct approach to the coast, it could bring heavy rain and winds to the Huatulco area of many tourists. Erick Wherever Erick may be in eight to 16 cm (20-41 cm) inches of rain, possibly 20 cm (51 cm) or more, so flash flooding and mudslides will be a clear threat.
The hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific needs to be extended ahead of schedule
Erick is more than a month ahead of the Eastern Pacific average: the fifth-ranked annual storm in the basin usually waits until July 23 based on the 1991-2020 climate. Barbara became the first hurricane in the eastern Pacific on June 9, the date of the average first hurricane to the basin on June 26. Erick became a hurricane on June 18. The average formation date for the second hurricane of the season is July 15.
Comparison with 2024's devastating Hurricane John
Erick also brought some similarities to last year’s Hurricane John, which also brought huge sharpness to the Pacific coast east of Acapulco. On the evening of September 24, after John quickly strengthened as he headed north almost north, he attacked Guerrero in the eastern state of Guerrero, with a wind speed of 105 mph (169 km/h). Over the next three days, John leaned towards West, moved at sea, and returned to the unusual second landing, a tropical storm at Guerrero State University in the far west. Along the way, it poured over 10 to 20 inches (25-51 cm) or even higher local volumes of extensive rainfall. John killed 29 people and caused the estimated $2.45 billion damage from Gallagher Re. According to EM-DAT, only three other Eastern Pacific hurricanes have caused inflation-adjusted dollar losses in Mexico: Otis ($12 billion in 2023); Manuel ($5.6 billion in 2013); and Odile ($3.2 billion in 2014).
Outside the eastern Pacific, tropical cyclones have been very sparse throughout the northern hemisphere so far this year. Only another naming system has been formed: Typhoon WUTIP. It hit the Philippines in the northern part of June 13 as a strong tropical storm and recurred violently in southern China on June 15, the equivalent of the smallest hurricane (the lasting winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) for the top-tier one minute). Wutip killed at least 17 people.
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