From Acapulco to Puerto Aungel, there was a hurricane warning on Mexico's Pacific coast, and Hurricane Erick quickly exacerbated the hurricane towards its impact on the land on Thursday morning, June 19. Depending on whether it contacts the land at a significant angle or causes serious damage along the coast, this can cause serious damage.
Until Wednesday at 11 a.m. ET, Eric had sustained winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and central pressure of 984 MB, and the northwest rose to 8 mph (13 km/h). Satellite images show Erick formed his eyes at the end of Wednesday morning, surrounded by walls of eyes with thunderstorms and clouds, and the peaks are very cold. Erick exceeded the rapid reinforcement threshold, 35 mph in 24 hours after intensifying at 45 mph at 8 a.m. Eastern Time. The first hunting plane is expected to enter the system on Wednesday morning, June 18.
Predict Eric
The wind shears are expected to maintain light (5-10 knots) until the impact on the land is favorable for rapid reinforcement. Although the waters along the Erick trajectory are not very deep, which will limit the ocean's heat content on Wednesday night, the surface temperatures of the ocean will become warmer and warmer – at 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), Erick is expected to continue strengthening Erick until when. This intensity will also be favored by an unusually humid atmosphere with a relative humidity of 80-85%.
The prognosis of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 11 a.m. ET shows that when Erick hit Earth on Thursday morning, he was the largest point of a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h); however, the NHC warned that the hurricane could be strengthened more. The central climate index that assesses the effects of climate change in weather events shows that ocean temperatures along the Eric trajectory are close to average and that climate change due to humans has not increased significantly.
Anomaly effects of early-season hurricanes in Mexico
For example, like other increasingly tilted hurricanes, those heading north or northeast of the Florida Bay Coast can also undergo minor changes in Eric’s trajectory, potentially large changes at points that touch the Earth. Most of the hurricanes at Erick's current location ended up stopping at the ocean, especially early in the season. In fact, there is no modern record in the months of June or July, older hurricanes hit land on Mexico’s Pacific Coast (see Figure 1). Even in August, there was only one major hurricane impact: Hurricane Kiko, which hit the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula with Category 3 on August 27, 1989.
Erick's weaker precedent is Hurricane Carlotta (not shown in Figure 1), which hit the west coast of Oaxaca on June 16, 2012, with sustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h). In the last 75 years, only 16 hurricanes have played land in Mexico before July, and just three of them did it with intensity of category 2. The last time it was at the end of May 2022, when Hurricane Agatha hit the small coastal town of Puerto Ángel, which is currently under Hurricane alert for the passage of Erick (thanks to Michael Lowry for this data).
Eric's plan trajectory and its possible impact
The prognosis of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that Erick will contact at a rather obvious angle, about 160 kilometers east of Acapulco and about 160 kilometers east of Acapulco, the city suffered the devastating effects of Hurricane Hurricane Otis, Category 5, 2023, the most expensive hurricane in Mexican history. Three of the most reliable trajectory models agree that Erick will remain east of Acapulco, which may maintain the maximum sustained wind below hurricanes in the city. While short-term high-resolution models designed to predict intensity are not a surety of the trajectory, they also agree that Erick will touch East Acapulco, which may be a small population in Oaxaca.
These high-resolution models differ between the exact tendencies of the Erick method, which will affect position and intensity. If the hurricane approaches more directly, it may bring huge rainfall and strong winds to the Hoturco tourist area. Regardless of its exact trajectory, Erick is expected to accumulate rainwater by 200 to 400 mm (8 to 16 inches), with a possible local maximum of more than 500 mm (over 20 inches), thus with a large risk of flooding.
Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is developing rapidly
Erick formed the Eastern Pacific average more than a month ago: Based on the weather from 1991 to 2020, it was the fifth storm until 1991 to 2020 weather until July 23.
Comparison with 2024's devastating Hurricane John
Since Erick's unusual entry into the land last year, he remembered Hurricane John, he also traveled unusually directly to the Pacific coast east of Acapulco. John moved almost in the north and quickly strengthened on the evening of September 24 with a wind of 105 mph (169 km/h) as a Class 3 hurricane. Over the next few days, he turned around and returned to the seaside, striking Guerrero's west as a tropical storm. In his route, he will have a prevalence of 250 to 500 mm (10 to 20 inches), with greater levels at some points. According to Gallagher Re, John killed 29 people and lost an estimated $2.45 billion. According to EM-DAT, only three hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific have caused more losses in Mexico (adjusted by inflation): Otis ($12 billion in 2023), Manuel ($5.6 billion in 2013) and Odile ($3.2 billion in 2014).
Atypical season in the Northern Hemisphere
Outside the eastern Pacific, cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere has been surprisingly scarce. Only another system was formed: Typhoon WUTIP affected northern Philippines with a strong tropical storm on June 13, and then turned northeast on June 15 as the lowest hurricane for hurricanes (sustaining winds of 75 mph or 120 km/h). Wutip left at least 17 people dead.
Repost our articles for free under the Creative Commons license, online or in print.
