In a Politico article, the title isScientists warn,” warned writer Rory O'Neill, “Europe is increasingly dealing with diseases and deaths from extreme weather and tropical diseases, but there is no plan to prevent and respond to the increase in climate-related health problems. ” [emphasis, links added]
This is wrong.
Evidence from multiple sources suggests that climate and temperature-related deaths worldwide and Europe are declining rather than increasing in the long term.
O'Neal continues:
Scientists are worried [that mosquito-borne diseases—dengue and chikungunya—once confined to tropical regions,] As tiger mosquitoes spread northward, it may become endemic in Europe, which makes it all the way to Brussels and 20 other towns.
Meanwhile, heat-related deaths are expected to triple by the end of the century, while deaths from extreme events including floods and wildfires are on the rise.
The most obvious lie Politico said is probably that deaths from extreme weather events are increasing. The opposite is true: Global climate-related deaths have fallen by more than 98% since the 1920s and close to zero. (See Figure 1 below)
As shown by Dr. Bjørn Lomborg, and submitted to Climate Realism Using long-term data from EM-DAT (International Disaster Database), despite the number of deaths from weather-related disasters (often mistakenly selected as climate disasters), such as storms, floods, floods, droughts, wildfires, wildfires and extreme temperatures, despite the warmer past century.
Lomborg's analysis reveals the inconvenience truth of climate alarmers: modern society has become more resilient due to technology, infrastructure, emergency systems and adaptability.
As Lomberg correctly observed,[t]His reason we haven't heard of this amazing achievement is because it doesn't fit the narrative of climate shock. ”
It would be surprising if the death toll from extreme weather events in Europe increased, as both wildfires and floods were increasing in numbers or severity – two other assertions made by O'Neill, which is completely wrong.
Data discussed in the climate at a glance: Global wildfires from three independent sources, including NASA and the European Space Agency, show that global wildfires have declined globally over the past few decades. (See Figure 2 below)
The fact that the image above shows no increase in wildfires in Europe confirms climate realism here.
Regarding flooding, no increase in flooding was found in the intergovernmental panel on climate change, and recent European flooding is not very unusual, as discussed here, here and here in climate realism.
Politico's claim to temperature death is misleading. O'Neal's claim completely ignores the significant drop in deaths from cold temperatures, which is much larger than the slight increase in caloric deaths.
O'Neill cites a worst-based model scenario that by 2100, Europe's heat-related deaths could be triple.
However, political articles conveniently ignore the fact that Cold-related deaths far outweigh heat-related deaths, and deaths are falling.
A landmark study The Lancet Analyzing mortality data from 13 countries, it concluded that the number of people killed by cold is 20 times the calories, as shown in Figure 3 below:
As a result, during moderate warming The death toll dropped significantly due to cold temperatures, and the death toll related to the lowest temperature dropped sharply.
Warm winters harm more lives than warm summers.
However, this life-saving benefit of warmer climates is completely ignored in the Politico climate debate, not considered in O'Neill Cites' model.
Just like another Climate Realism Article, even in Europe, most of the excess mortality in winter comes from cold, not calories. In fact, energy poverty – driven primarily by EU climate policies raising energy prices, which prevents many European seniors from fully heating their homes, causing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths each year.
Politico also attempts to become a European-specific hysteria by claiming that it will soon become unique to Europe in Europe due to climate change. The facts tell a completely different story.
And tiger mosquitoAdes White Pupictus) has spread to parts of southern Europe, with the actual number of dengue cases being small.
When Politico itself acknowledged (the buried central part), the EU had only 304 cases of dengue in 2024, almost up from the 275 total cases in the previous 15 years.
This is not an epidemic; it is a statistical world. With Watts covered here, the main factors behind the spread of these diseases are not temperature, but international travel, global transport, urbanization and human reconciliation patterns that are not related to CO2 emissions.
Perhaps the most shocking assertion in this article is “In 2021, nearly 60 million people in Europe suffered from severe food insecurity, with 11.9 million of which were attributed to climate change.”
Since there is no such evidence or data, there is no causal evidence to make this claim. Instead, the claim is based on a claim Climate attribution research – Based on computer guessing, dress up as empirical science.
Europe remains one of the most edible regions on the planet. As Climate Realism With the help of technological advancements and carbon dioxide fertilization, crop yields have been recorded several times in Europe and around the world, a scientifically validated phenomenon where increased atmospheric carbon dioxide can improve plant growth and water efficiency.
If anything, climate change has so far become a net benefit for European agriculture. Far from the existence of threats in Europe, farmers in Europe are producing record-breaking harvests.
The EU has no “master plan” to combat rising climate deaths is simple: There is no crisis to guarantee such a plan. Real-world data show that modern Europe is safer than weather-related threats than ever before.
The biggest public health risk at present comes from climate policy not disease, but energy poverty. As multiple Wuwt posts have covered, Europe's premature abandonment of fossil fuels has caused soaring energy prices, forcing vulnerable people to choose between heating and eating.
This is killed by climate fanaticism, not dengue.
As always, Politico's work relies heavily on 2100's speculative model to predict horrible results. These models failed empirical validation tests. As Roy Spencer thoroughly proves, climate models continue to “run” and always outweigh the actual observed warming.
Even Lancet Planet Health The scenario cited by Politico relies on the extreme worst climate model RCP 8.5, which climate scientists acknowledge is unrealistic and should not be used to predict future climatic conditions or impacts.
All in all, Politico's work is not journalism – it's an extended press release from climate activists and non-elected NGO bureaucratswhich reflects on flawed model predictions, cherry picks isolated data points, and conveniently ignores real-world data. Instead, it shows that climate-related mortality has dropped sharply during the recent moderate warming period, and this adaptability has never been higher.
If it wants to tout itself as a journalism effort, Politico should spend less time amplifying NGOs’ conversation points and more time finding the truth, which is easily discovered through a check of actual existing data.
Read more in Climate Realism
