When the mandatory evacuation was asked to evacuate before the hurricane, the highway was filled with cars driving off the coast.
“One of the spells in this field is to make sure your gas tank is half full in the summer,” said Stephen Murphy, director of the disaster management program at Tulane University.
Evacuation can save lives. But after the storm pass, residents think that residents think unnecessary evacuations may reduce trust and make people less likely to evacuate next time, which may deter state and local leaders from demanding a mandatory evacuation.
Over the past few years, officials have made decisions before the storm have been able to turn to the highly accurate predictions of the National Weather Service. They know that when they call for evacuation, the federal government will support them with money and other support. This year, these previously reliable federal services have a major question mark.
1. Climate change and federal cuts reduce the quality of forecasts required to make evacuation decisions
In New Orleans, Murphy said, the storm preparation schedule is called “H Hour” from the moment the outside band of the expected storm arrives in the city. Resources were transferred to the expected area of H-Hour 100-84 hours in advance, and Contraflow started 30 hours before H-Hour, meaning all traffic on the interstate was far away from the city.
But he said the rapid intensification of the storm in recent years has given emergency planners additional headaches. When the maximum sustained wind of tropical cyclones increases by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) within 24 hours, the storm can intensify rapidly, which may leave people on the ground with little time to prepare for a sudden huge hurricane.
Rapid reinforcement can be difficult to predict, although forecasts have improved in recent years. But the staff and budget of NOAA, an agency responsible for overseeing the National Weather Service, cut the progress under the Trump administration’s Governor Program. According to Yale climate relations meteorologist Jeff Masters, at least eight of the 122 National Meteorological Services offices left with gunshots, acquisitions and early retirement cannot operate 24/7. Another red flag is the drastically reduced data from weather balloon launches.
Read more: Hurricane season is coming, but NOAA and FEMA are not ready yet
“Rapid reinforcement events are often due to low-pressure high-rise troughs, whose strong 'jet stripes' of strong upper winds, located in the north of the hurricane, providing a high-rise outflow channel that vents storms, allowing it to gather in warmer, humid air near the surface to help it,” said the master. “As the data are to predict the positioning and intensity of such troughs, our fast intensity predictions may degrade in certain situations that will not be launched due to cuts from NOAA employees.”
Rapidly strengthening forecasts is crucial to help contingency planners mobilize coastal evacuations. Wherever Louisiana coastal areas, evacuation needs to start early so that people don’t get stuck on the highway when storms hit.
Retired Lieutenant General Russel Honoré responded to the U.S. military response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Now, this year, we know that the National Weather Service has stood out by Doge. ”
The reduction has consequences, it means. As seen on TV
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— John Morales (@johnmoralestv.bsky.social) June 2, 2025 at 7:45 pm
2. FEMA uncertainty means that the state may receive basic financial or coordinated support for evacuation
In addition to the NOAA cuts, the Trump administration has ruled with the Federal Emergency Administration and withheld funds from some states that suffered disaster this spring. President Donald Trump and others in his administration have called on states to manage the disaster themselves and said the FEMA will be disbanded after this hurricane season.
For state and local officials, the decision to evacuate is already difficult. In 2008, Hurricane Gustav looks like he would go straight to the city.
“But Gustav didn't attack New Orleans,” Murphy said. “It bypassed Baton Rouge and evacuated a lot of people here. So it was a 'cry wolf boy.”
This decision will be even harder if local officials think they have no financial support. Over the past few years, a governor may have requested a federal disaster declaration before a major storm. After approval, this will trigger support from FEMA, such as evacuation coordination and contracted buses to evacuate people who cannot drive and ambulance to help evacuate hospitals.
“There is no hospital on Earth that can evacuate the entire hospital with an ambulance on hand,” Murphy said.
Samantha Montano, author of “Disasterology,” is a book about the vulnerability of the U.S. to face disasters in climate change, and no state can cancel a major evacuation without federal support.
“I think the country and locals just suddenly think about this extra money for emergency management, which is not really rooted in reality, especially when you look at the overall political situation,” she said.
It is unclear whether a pre-disaster disaster will be approved this year, but the Trump administration’s slow approval may deny a disaster statement to states that suffered damage from tornadoes this spring.
“In the case of federal support, the Deshast’s declaration can make comfort triggers, or what I’m going to say is triggering this trigger, knowing you are protecting life and safety, but there is financial support to achieve that.”
Sarah Deyoung, a professor at the University of Delaware Center for Disaster Research, said Hurricane Helen had helped and sheltered in places like Asheville before dipping into western North Carolina in the fall of 2024. But misinformation about FEMA led to chaos and anger as devastating floods swept the area.
Read more: Hurricane misinformation carnival reveals a new side of climate war
“If you don’t have a situation where agencies are ready to communicate with each other and mobilize these resources quickly, the community is really going to suffer,” Deyoung said. “Just like we think people are following Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Helen, all the chaos, eroding and limiting federal resources during this upcoming hurricane season, I know, I’m afraid to see what happens.”
What should you do to protect yourself and your neighbors during this hurricane season?
Given the uncertainty, Honoré recommends that you take a conservative approach and evacuate whether you live on the coast and that you are in the predicted cone of a hurricane this summer. But if you evacuate the area where the storm ultimately bears the brunt of it, like what happened in Baton Rouge during Gustav, it can be risky.
Murphy recommends making sure you have an updated evacuation plan and understand your risk tolerance and preparation.
“You have to weigh these risks and you have to understand that if the storm comes, no matter what the city is doing, you should leave.”
Honoré said if you plan to evacuate, you should check your neighbors and make sure they have a way to be safe as well. He said older neighbors, especially, need additional support.
Other vulnerable groups in this hurricane season may be immigrants, trans people, people in prisons, U.S. immigration and customs law enforcement detention, while others are afraid to seek official help because of the dehumanizing and violent rhetoric of those in power. With neighbors before an emergency can help the community understand its vulnerability and prepare to survive.
“The first lives to be saved will be neighbors helping neighbors, which happened during Hurricane Katrina,” Honoré said.
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