Photo credit: Jason Weingart
west kauai
today: Mostly sunny. Breeze. Highs will be around 89 degrees near the coast and around 75 degrees above 3,000 feet. East wind 10 to 20 mph.
tonight: partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening and after midnight. Lows near the coast are about 72 degrees and above 3,000 feet above sea level are about 61 degrees. East wind 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain is 50%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs will be around 89 degrees near the coast and around 74 degrees above 3,000 feet. East wind 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain is 20%.
South Kauai
today: Partly sunny. windy. There are scattered showers in the morning. High temperature 80 to 87 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
tonight: Breeze. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. The lowest temperature is about 72 degrees. The chance of rain is 50%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breeze. There will be more showers in the morning and scattered showers in the afternoon. The maximum temperature will be 79 to 87 degrees. The chance of rain is 70%.
kauai mountains
today: Mostly cloudy. Breeze. There will be scattered showers in the morning and scattered showers in the afternoon. Highest points in the valley range from 73 to 87 degrees, and above 4,000 feet it ranges from 61 to 67 degrees. East wind 10 to 25 mph. The chance of rain is 50%.
tonight: Cloudy and breezy. There will be showers throughout the night, with showers developing after midnight. Lowest temperatures range from 66 to 72 degrees in the valley and around 58 degrees above 4,000 feet. East wind 10 to 25 mph. The chance of rain is 90%.
Saturday: Cloudy and breezy. There will be showers in the morning and scattered showers in the afternoon. Highest temperatures in the valley above 4,000 feet range from 73 to 87 degrees, with highs from 61 to 66 degrees. East wind 10 to 25 mph. The chance of rain is 80%.
North Kauai
today: Breeze. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highest temperatures will be 76 to 90 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lowest temperature 65 to 74 degrees. The chance of rain is 50%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highest temperatures will be 77 to 90 degrees. The chance of rain is 50%.
East Kauai
today: Breeze. Mostly cloudy with showers. Highest temperature 74 to 86 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, with showers after midnight. Lowest temperature 65 to 75 degrees. The chance of rain is 70%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. There will be more showers in the morning and scattered showers in the afternoon. High temperature 74 to 85 degrees. The chance of rain is 70%.
summary
A strong high-pressure system over the northern Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce breezy to locally strong trade winds in the area today, with wind speed trends declining slightly into the moderate to breezy range Saturday into Sunday, before wind speeds drop to moderate levels from Monday start. Strong and steady subsidence aloft will limit the chance of showers for much of next week. However, cloud and shower trends may increase slightly later tonight into Saturday as a weak tropical wave moves east to west along the island chain.
discuss
Satellite imagery this morning shows that an upper-level cold-core low is producing thunderstorms about 500 to 600 miles northwest of Kauai. The upper-level subtropical jet stream will continue to produce high cirrus clouds over the islands during the first half of next week and enhance sunrise and sunset colors.
A strong high pressure system over the northern Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce breezy to locally blustery trade winds in the area today. The high pressure center begins to weaken this weekend, with wind trends gradually weakening into the moderate to breezy range from Saturday to Sunday, then weakening further to milder levels starting Monday. This change in wind speed forecasts for next week is consistent with the current distal model solution mix and represents a high confidence forecast for next week's time period. Some windier areas may experience brief localized breezy winds into next week at most.
Strong and steady subsidence beneath the upper ridge will continue to limit vertical cloud heights and shower development for much of next week. A wrinkle in this forecast may appear later tonight into Saturday as a weak tropical wave drifts east to west along the island chain. The lower horizontal forcing of this trough will raise trade wind inversion heights enough to increase shower tendencies, primarily in windward areas and mountainous areas. Otherwise, most of the smaller islands will experience stable and mostly dry weather, with trade wind inversion heights in the 4,000 to 6,000 foot range.
aviation
Light to locally windy trade will continue into tomorrow, with winds easing from Saturday. SHRA and low cigars will favor the windward and hairy positions and bring about short-lived MVFR conditions.
AIRMET Sierra is valid for the windward portion of mtn obsc on all islands. Conditions should improve later this morning.
The AIRMET Tango remains effective for low altitude turbines in downwind areas of island terrain and may be required in the coming days.
ocean
Strong high pressure in the northeastern part of the state will continue to produce strong to locally near-gale trade winds today. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaii waters until 6 p.m. HST today. High pressure will weaken slightly this weekend, causing wind speeds to weaken slightly and return to locally strong winds. SCA coverage may need to be reduced to typically windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island by tonight. Trading continues to slow into moderate to fresh territory early next week.
Enhanced trade will continue to bring rough surf to the east-facing coast through the weekend. Local wind and waves may affect some north and south facing coasts. A long-term precursor of small waves from the south-southeast has filled in overnight, providing small waves along the south-facing coast today. This will be followed by background waves coming from the south-southwest on Saturday. Otherwise, no significant gains are expected for the rest of the week.
fire weather
Gusty trade winds continue today under dry and stable conditions. This will continue to exacerbate fire weather problems in windier trade wind areas and downslope leeward areas such as West Maui and the Leeward Kohala on the Big Island. Trade winds will gradually weaken to moderate to light breezes from Saturday into Sunday, then drop to moderate levels starting Monday as the pressure gradient in the state eases.
Relative humidity will remain low over the next few days as relatively dry air masses remain in place over the upper reaches of the state. No major changes in the upstream moisture plume are expected, and lower relative humidity will heighten fire weather concerns, particularly in areas with gusty winds. Most leeward areas will remain dry. Brief showers will move into windward areas mainly overnight. Humidity levels will return overnight with good to excellent results.
The exception to this humidity rule is at altitudes in the 4,000 to 8,000 foot range, where periods of warmer temperatures and dry conditions may occur within or above the subsidence inversion level.
HFO Observations/Warnings/Recommendations
Small craft advisory on all Hawaii waters until 6pm HST tonight,
Data provided by NOAA.gov
