Which areas are likely to experience storms and tornadoes?

4 warning weather – Severe weather, including an isolated tornado, is possible across Michigan on Tuesday.

The Severe Weather Prediction Center on Tuesday placed much of the Lower Peninsula, including the Detroit metro area, in the “marginal” risk category for severe storms.

The “marginal” risk areas include Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Monroe, Lenawee, Livingston and Ingham counties. Cities include Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, Holland, Flint, Jackson and Battle Creek.

Communities near the Michigan-Ohio border were classified as “slight” risk, the second highest out of five categories.

Stormy weather is still expected in other parts of the state, but not to severe levels. That may change with Tuesday's model update.

“Fringe” areas are also listed, with a 2% chance of an isolated tornado. Areas closer to the Michigan and Ohio borders are at greater risk.

Any severe storm could bring large hail and damaging winds.

—> Follow weather updates and radar here

Here's What to Expect in Southeast Michigan

4Warn Weather's Ashlee Baracy reports: We're going to have sunny weather on Tuesday. Clouds will then develop in the afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening.

Generally speaking, cities in the southwest along a line from Flint to Detroit will face a marginal risk (Level 5) of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. A warm front will move through the area, causing instability that could lead to severe storms.

Showers are possible around 6 p.m., but more widespread rain and potential storms are expected at 7 p.m.

Severe storms could bring damaging winds, large hail, flooding and isolated weak tornadoes. There is no guarantee that we will see each or all of these threats, but the likelihood of seeing them is low.

—> More: Severe storms possible in metro Detroit this week: What to know

Explain severe weather risk levels

Marginal, minor, enhanced, moderate and high risk represent an increasing threat of organized severe storm events. Here's a breakdown:

Thunderstorm (light green) – Moderate or non-severe thunderstorms – The right side of the line depicts locations where the probability of thunderstorms is expected to be 10% or higher during the validity period.

1-Edge (dark green) – Marginal risk – areas of severe storms with limited organization and duration, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.

2-slight (yellow) – Minor risk – An area of ​​organized severe storms that are not widespread but vary in intensity.

3-Enhancement (Orange) – Enhanced Risk – The area covered by larger (vs. minor risk) severe storms with varying intensity levels.

4-Medium (Red) – Moderate Risk – Areas of possible widespread severe weather with multiple tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms, some of which should be severe. This risk typically lasts for several days, as several supercells can produce strong tornadoes and/or very large hail, or severe squall lines with widespread damaging winds.

5 high (magenta) – High Risk – Areas expected to experience severe weather outbreaks from either a large number of strong, long-lasting tornadoes or a long-lasting thunderstorm complex that can produce hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is retained when there is a high degree of confidence in widespread reports of severe weather and includes extremely severe events (i.e., violent tornadoes or extremely damaging convective wind events).

—> Related: Watch, Warning, Risk: Understanding Michigan's Severe Weather Warning Terminology