- Disturbances in the mid-Atlantic may form into tropical depressions or storms.
- This could happen later this week or over the weekend near the Bahamas, Cuba, or Hispaniola.
- Assuming it does develop, its potential impact on the eastern United States or Gulf Coast remains uncertain.
- Possible routes range from sharp bends into the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The next tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season could form later this week once a disturbance moves near the Bahamas, but its potential impact on the United States remains uncertain so far.
Where is the riot now? According to the National Hurricane Center, an area of rotation and moisture located east of the Lesser Antilles near the “X” in the image below is expected to interact with tropical waves in the coming days.
When and where will it develop? The National Hurricane Center says it won't occur until at least the second half of this week, if it occurs, typically in the shaded area on the chart below. Most computer models suggest development could occur somewhere near the Bahamas on Friday or Saturday.
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Possible developments for NHC
(Based on the latest National Hurricane Center Outlook, possible areas of tropical development are shown as polygons and color-coded based on the chance of development over the next seven days. The “X” indicates the current location of the disturbance.)
Is development certain? The eventual development of this system was not smooth sailing.
It first had to fight off some dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert. Dry air will temporarily suppress development. However, once this system moves westward, it may have enough moisture to isolate itself.
Computer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, so this may also be beneficial later on. There is also a large amount of warm water ahead of the system that could power its growth near the Bahamas.
So, assuming any low-pressure areas that form don't cover much land — from Puerto Rico to Cuba — the factors that have kept the Atlantic basin quiet recently may weaken their grip.
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Is this a threat from the United States? The short answer is that it's too early to tell. That's because this system could produce a variety of outcomes this weekend into early next week, depending on where and when the system develops, as well as the strength and extent of the Bermuda High.
Possible situations include:
- It did not develop, but curved sharply north and then northeast, taking it away from the east coast of the United States.
- It will develop and move past northern Florida or hit parts of the East Coast.
- Instead of developing, it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula.
- It doesn't develop at all.
Currently, all stakeholders from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the United States (from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast) should closely monitor the progress of this system and monitor the progress of the system through weather . com contact us to learn more.
Is this a seasonal increase? Saharan dust has been accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean since Hurricane Beryl dissipated about three weeks ago.
This uptick in activity coincides with the start of the most active period of the year in the tropics and a wave of more favorable atmospheric conditions, known as the favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
The wave orbits the Earth approximately once every 40 days and gives a boost to the tropics as it passes through them. Recently, Category 4 typhoons and tropical storms formed in the western Pacific after experiencing a cyclonic drought similar to that seen in the Atlantic.
August, September, and October are the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is because water temperatures are typically the highest, wind shear is lowest, and humidity increases throughout the basin.
(Watch: Two of our meteorologists recently discussed the potential for increased activity in the future)
The corridor this incoming system will travel through is a common corridor for August storms.
Typical formation areas in August
