from climaterealism
Author: Linny Luken
A recent article published by Rigzone, “How Dangerous Will Extreme Weather Be for Oil and Gas Companies in 2024?” reiterates that extreme weather events such as hurricanes are becoming more severe and therefore have a negative impact on oil and gas operations, especially those in the Gulf of Mexico The operation poses significant risks. Offshore oil operations are threatened by hurricanes, but this is not new and poses a threat every hurricane season. Therefore, operators should work on improving weather forecasting techniques and response plans to reduce risks. This is true regardless of climate change, as hurricanes are not, in fact, becoming more frequent or severe.
Rigzone’s article primarily consists of interviews with several oilfield “experts,” notably an economist named Frederick J. Lawrence, who first made it clear that extreme weather could be a risk factor for oil and gas and that “be prepared and faster response” In addition to raising standards and resilience, we will always need this capability. “
Later in the article, Lawrence claims, “increasing preparedness for extreme weather events will remain a top priority given that their frequency and intensity appear to be increasing, according to organizations that track weather-related events.”[.]”
Others interviewed, such as the Energy Institute’s Alex Stevens, wisely stated that “hurricanes have been causing serious problems for oil and gas companies due to their potential impact on supply chain logistics, infrastructure and extraction needs. risk.
“Always” is true, and in fact there is no evidence that hurricanes or other extreme weather affecting oil and gas operations are becoming more frequent or intense, as Lawrence said.
Take hurricanes as an example. Since hurricanes pose the most direct and obvious threat to oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico every year, we can see from the available historical data that no matter what the “weather tracking organization” is, hurricanes do not It's going to get worse.
I suspect these “groups” are referring to groups like the World Weather Attribution Organization, who make a living attributing various weather events to climate change. Their approach, used to find the truth about weather events, is an untrustworthy approach because they first assume that extreme weather events are caused or influenced by climate change, and then work backwards to make their models fit and determine climate change. the extent of its impact. We've reported on this bad science multiple times climate realismlike the flooding in Dubai last spring, the wildfires in Canada last year, and other weather events that made the news.
Hurricanes are not getting more severe or frequent — not in the Gulf of Mexico, nor around the world, as Climate Realists have repeatedly pointed out in the past, such as here , here , and here , and as the cited data clearly confirms Climate Overview: Hurricanes and Climate Overview: Global Tropical Cyclones.
The latest global hurricane numbers charted by Dr. Ryan Maue show no increasing trend since the 1980s. If anything, hurricane numbers appear to have declined slightly during this period. (See below)
Measurements of the total energy of hurricanes and tropical storms also show no increasing trend since the 1970s. The annual changes are significant, but the overall trend is not obvious. (See below)
It is simply not true that hurricanes that threaten oil and gas operations are becoming more frequent or extreme.
Likewise, as discussed in Climate Overview: U.S. Heat Waves, extreme heat is another weather condition that can threaten oilfield jobs, especially in hot and arid regions like the American Southwest.
Nor is the potential for extreme cold, which is more dangerous to life, any greater.
That’s not to say it’s not a good idea to continue to improve the weather resilience of oil fields and invest in better weather forecasting and storm tracking technology. But regardless of the trend for severe weather, it's a good idea because if there's one thing that's absolutely certain, it's extreme weather will final strike will causing operational disruption.
Thankfully, no one in a Rigzone article suggested stopping the use of fossil fuels as a way to prevent extreme weather, but spreading lies about extreme weather trends is unhelpful.
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