An article from August 7 new york times The (new) title is, Hot weather sparks fears Great Barrier Reef 'dead' within a generation Claims that recent increases in ocean temperatures could have catastrophic impacts on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) within 30 years. [emphasis, links added]
While the temperature data may have some truth to it, Claims about the Great Barrier Reef's demise are false and ignore the temperature history and development of the Great Barrier Reef thousands of years ago.
The article claims:
Australian scientists have released new research on the heat of the surrounding ocean, saying the Great Barrier Reef could be wiped out within a generation unless humans take more urgent action to curb climate change.
The Great Barrier Reef is the world's largest coral reef system and is often called the largest living structure on Earth. The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, found that recent extreme temperatures in the Coral Sea have reached levels not seen in at least 400 years, the highest levels their analysis could reach.
It includes models showing what causes these extremes: greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans burning fossil fuels and destroying natural places like forests that store carbon.
Conjecture that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed by climate change has been around for decades. Such claims typically involve sea level rise (SLR), rising temperatures, or both.
However, the truth of the matter is Corals thrive in warm waters, and they can handle monocular cameras with ease.
Australia's Great Barrier Reef began to form in the early Holocene 9,000 years ago, and the highest sea level in the Holocene occurred about 5,000 to 6,000 years ago. Various factors, including sea level rise, tectonic deformation and accretion rates, have influenced the Holocene evolution of the Great Barrier Reef.
Sea levels rose rapidly until about 7,000 years ago, when the continental shelf was submerged by six to seven meters every thousand years. Corals kept up with the speed of the single eye, much faster than measured today.
Readings from NASA satellite instruments dating back to 1993 show Global sea levels are rising at a rate of only 1.2 inches per decade or 120 inches (3 meters per thousand years)
Coral evidence suggests ocean temperatures at Heron Reef on the Great Barrier Reef were cooler than they were 5,200 years ago and 7,000 years ago.
However, other evidence suggests that a warm period known as the mid-Holocene hottest period occurred between 6,000 and 6,800 years ago, when tropical ocean surface temperatures were about 1°C warmer than today.
Figure 1 shows the temperatures then compared to today:
As discussed in Climate at a Glance—Coral Reefscorals have existed continuously for 60 million years, They thrive and expand in conditions where temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are significantly higher than those Earth experiences today or any levels reasonably expected in the future.
The main causes of coral bleaching events vary greatly depending on time and location and include sediment and chemical contamination of nearby coastal lands, chemicals in sunscreen (oxybenzone), fertilizer and nitrogen loads from agriculture, and cold events .
The argument that corals are being decimated by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is readily supported by available data.
Apparently, the corals of the Great Barrier Reef survived temperatures and sea level conditions far higher than today.
New York Times article cites study using computer models to predict future of Great Barrier Reef But it completely ignores past temperature and sea level history.
But the latest figures provide the final refutation of claims of Britain's demise. As pointed out here climate realism Just a month ago, Even though the media keeps telling you that the UK is at its highest level of growth ever, As shown in Figure 2 below.
To be clear, In recent decades, when ocean temperatures were cooler, the Great Barrier Reef was much smaller than it is now, and it expanded significantly after bleaching events.
Concerns about the demise of the Great Barrier Reef do not reflect actual data, the history of the Great Barrier Reef and current experience on the reef.
The threat exists only in the models, in the minds of researchers, and in the minds of so-called journalists who push the idea.
There is no evidence that climate change is worsening the health of the Great Barrier Reef. The Great Barrier Reef’s resilience reminds us that nature is more adaptable and powerful than we often imagine.
It was irresponsible for the New York Times to publish this article, which is filled with inaccurate and misleading statements.
But this seems to be the norm today in the media, which dogmatically pushes a narrative of climate catastrophe, ignoring history, context and data.
Popular photo on Unsplash by David Clode
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