Article by Eric Worrell
If climate models can't even accurately predict heat peaks, what good are they?
'We should have better answers by now': Climate scientists baffled by unexpected rate of warming
Jonathan Watts Global Environment Editor Thursday 15 August 2024 22:00 AEST
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In March, one of the world's leading climate scientists published a remarkably candid article in Nature raising the alarming possibility that global warming may exceed what experts predict will happen next. ability.
Gavin Schmidt writes: “The sudden appearance of the 2023 temperature anomaly revealed an unprecedented gap in knowledge, perhaps for the first time since some 40 years ago, when satellite data began to inform modelling. Provides an unparalleled, instantaneous view of the Earth's climate system.
If the anomaly hasn't stabilized by August, he said, it could mean “the warming of the planet has fundamentally changed the way the climate system works much earlier than scientists expected.”
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August came, and Schmidt's uneasiness subsided a little. The situation remains unclear, he said, but broader global warming trends are starting to move back into predicted directions. “My thinking now is that we are not far off. If we keep this up over the next few months, then we can say that what happens in late 2023 is more of an “emergency” than a system sexual. But it's too early to tell,” he said. “I'm slightly less worried, but still humbled that we can't explain it.”
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Looking back at the most extreme months in late 2023 and early 2024, when records sometimes exceeded 0.2 degrees Celsius, it was a huge anomaly that he said scientists are still baffled by: “We don't have even half a quantitative explanation.” . This is so shameful.
He added: “We should have better answers by now. As a business, climate modeling is not super reactive. It is a slow and long process, and people around the world are volunteering their time. We There has been no concerted action on the issue.
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The recent El Niño phenomenon has exacerbated heat stress around the world. Scientists also point to the consequences of the January 2022 eruption of the Tonga Hunga-Hungahapai volcano, predicted increases in solar activity ahead of solar maximum, and pollution controls to reduce the cooling of sulfur dioxide particles. But none of these possible causes are sufficient to explain the spike in temperatures, Schmidt said.
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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/15/we-should-have-better-answers-by-now-climate-scientists-baffled-by-unexpected-pace- of -heating
Despite Schmidt's skepticism, I don't think the Hunga Tonga eruption should be considered a candidate explanation for this year's increase in temperatures. It seems a logical corollary that the temperature spikes following eruptions could be caused by volcanoes filling the stratosphere with large amounts of potent greenhouse gases.
The fact that no one knows whether or how much Hunga Tonga contributed to this year's warming temperatures, and that climate scientists like Schmidt admit there is no other good explanation, is an unusually candid reflection of our understanding of the climate system. How incomplete understanding is.
If climate models fail to capture major temperature drift events, how can we rely on them to do the right thing? Current climate models are clearly not suitable for advising government policy.
The silver lining to this scientific embarrassment is that the idea of a 1.5°C catastrophe has been thoroughly debunked. But 2C global warming limits are still a reality, right? /sarc
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