Hurricane warning flags are flying in Bermuda ahead of the expected arrival of Ernesto, the Category 2 storm moving across the western Atlantic and expected to pass close by or hit the island directly early Saturday morning.
At 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, Ernesto was a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 970 MB. The center was located about 215 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and was moving at 14 mph. The speed is moving to the north-northeast. Satellite images show that this is a large hurricane, but high wind shear of 20-30 knots, caused by strong upper-level winds from the west, has eroded most of the severe thunderstorms to the west of center Ernesto.
Ernesto moved across the United States and British Virgin Islands as a severe tropical storm Tuesday night, bringing heavy rains and near-hurricane-force wind gusts to much of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. The storm knocked out power to about half of Puerto Rico's 2 million customers and dropped 5 to 10 inches of rain on about half the island, causing flash flooding.
Ernesto's Big Wave
Ernesto was a major storm with tropical storm-force winds extending as far as 275 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds as far as 75 miles from the center. This high wind field is producing some huge waves, creating dangerous swimming conditions at beaches along much of the Atlantic coast of the United States and Canada. Rip currents extended southward into the Bahamas and Puerto Rico, and heavy rains along Ernesto's southern edge continued after the storm passed.
Ernesto's intensity forecast: Bermuda likely to be Cat 1
As Ernesto approaches Bermuda, it will continue to track near-record warm sea surface temperatures of about 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit), about 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) above the mid-August average. According to Climate Central's Ocean Temperature Climate Change Index tool, the likelihood of rising ocean temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change has increased about 60 times. However, wind shear is expected to be moderate to strong, and Ernesto will be in drier conditions, so wind shear is expected to weaken. The National Hurricane Center predicts Ernesto will gradually weaken over the next day or so, most likely reaching Bermuda as Category 1 intensity early Saturday.
Bermuda will be experiencing stormy weather Friday night and Saturday morning. NHC's forecast reflects close agreement between orbital models, placing Ernesto very close to Bermuda, likely passing directly over the island or just west of it. Given Ernesto's size, sustained winds of 40 to 70 mph will hit Bermuda for nearly 24 hours; hurricane-force sustained winds of 74 mph with higher gusts are likely early Saturday Affect the island for several hours. Widespread rainfall of 8 to 12 inches is possible, with local peaks of 15 inches or more possible, and the south side of the island will be hit by severe storm surge and large waves. The Bermuda Meteorological Service warned of “chaotic and dangerous seas” in the area, with waves reaching peaks of 5 to 9 feet within the atoll reef and 25 to 35 feet outside the reef.
Next: newfoundland
A trough of low pressure crossing north of Ernesto is expected to steer the hurricane more northeastward early next week, and the storm could transition into a hurricane by Monday night as it passes near or over southeastern Newfoundland, Canada. extratropical storm with winds of 60-80 mph. Former Ernesto will continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Western Europe on Thursday.
Bermuda’s Hurricane History
As detailed in Michael Lowry's Substack feed, a Category 2 or greater hurricane passes within 25 miles of Bermuda approximately every 10 to 12 years, usually in September or October. The last Category 2 or stronger hurricane to hit Bermuda was Category 2 Hurricane Paulette, whose eye moved to northeastern Bermuda on September 14, 2020, causing power outages across the island. However, only minor damage was reported in Bermuda, which is probably the most hurricane-prone place in the entire Atlantic. Bermuda has not reported hurricane deaths for more than 20 years (since Fabian in 2003).
Everything went quiet after Ernesto
The third week of August is typically the start of the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season. Forecast models predict little tropical cyclone activity, although record warm waters and low-shear upper-level wind patterns are expected over the tropical Atlantic over the next 10 days. The main reason this appears to be happening is that the tropical waves that serve as hurricane seeds are pushed away from Africa and occur at higher latitudes than usual. Tropical waves that have emerged to the north have encountered dry air from the Saharan air layer, limiting opportunities for development.
Ampier takes disturbing close swing near Tokyo
Powerful Typhoon Ampi began turning northeast early on Saturday local time, which will spare southeastern Japan, including the world's largest city, Tokyo, from the catastrophic impact of landfall. Ampil was about 105 miles southeast of Tokyo's Narita Airport at 11 a.m. ET on Friday, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Heavy rain and strong winds from the outer edge of Ampil hit the southeastern areas of Honshu, including the eastern and southern suburbs of Tokyo.
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