Gregory Wrightstone
The science of climate change is often presented in complex language, involving computer models and their theoretical inputs and outputs, and concludes that the planet is on the verge of “boiling.” Well, let three physicists, well-versed in calculus and arcane matters such as the behavior of molecules and the charge of atomic nuclei, simplify the analysis and arrive at a less shocking decision.
“Simple calculations…show that eliminating U.S. carbon dioxide2 By 2050, emissions will avoid a temperature increase of 0.0084 degrees Celsius. Richard Lindzen, MIT; William Harper, Princeton University; and William A. van Wijngaarden, York University, Toronto. On the Fahrenheit scale, the amount of warming avoided is 0.015 degrees.
In short, the amount of warming avoided by removing carbon dioxide2 U.S. emissions are too small to measure. The paper supports the idea that climate change is the product of natural forces and that human-caused carbon dioxide emissions have a negligible impact on global temperatures, while carbon dioxide2 A valuable plant food, not a contaminant.
Dr Harper said the paper's calculations relied almost entirely on widely accepted and publicly available “observable data”, rather than using theoretical assumptions about the various factors fed into the computer.
“This is something anyone with a calculator can figure out,” said the scientist, who is perhaps best known for his contributions to laser-based technology used to destroy incoming ballistic missiles. This was part of the so-called “Star Wars” program of the 1980s.
The data required for the calculation are the number of years until 2050, the amount of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere that scientists regularly measure, and the current concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere2As of June 2024, it was approximately 427 parts per million.
The only assumed data point is the sensitivity of the atmosphere to CO2 Increase. The values used in the paper are almost identical to those commonly used “before global warming alarmism became popular.” Even if that figure were quadrupled, to the figure favored by the politically driven Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the averted warming would still be only 0.034 degrees Celsius.
So what if the entire world eliminated CO2 emissions from human activities? Since U.S. emissions account for 12% of global output, the answer lies in doing math to determine the remaining 88%. The paper's calculations suggest that a warming of 0.07 degrees Celsius could be avoided. Using the higher IPCC sensitivity value, this number increases fourfold to 0.28 degrees Celsius. Both remain irrelevant and certainly not worth destroying the world economy.
Dr. Harper noted that others using different methods have reached similar conclusions to the paper, and he and his co-authors hope to show that the controversial topic of climate change does not need to be complicated.
“The greater public should understand that they are falling victim to disinformation spread by people whose interests have more to do with money and power than with environmental issues,” he said. “The answer is found in relatively simple mathematics strongly suggests that this is the case.”
Whatever the motivation, spending trillions of dollars replacing fossil fuels with expensive and unreliable wind and solar power is foolish, futile and dangerous.
This comment was first published on Real and clear market August 14, 2024.
Gregory Wrightstone is a geologist; Executive Director carbon monoxide2 allianceArlington, Virginia; author ofAn Inconvenient Truth: The Science Al Gore Doesn't Want You to Know” and”Very Handy Warming: How Moderate Warming and More CO2 Can Benefit Humanity.“
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