Another day, another new scientific paper reports Efforts to curb man-made carbon dioxide emissions are “pointless”. [emphasis, links added]
In this study, a multiple linear regression analysis was performed comparing sea surface temperature and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions as explanatory factors during the period 1959-2022, and annual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide as the target variable.
The model using SST (NASA, NOAA, UAH) best explained annual CO2 changes (regression coefficient B = 2.406, P = <0.0002).
In contrast, Human emissions have not been shown to be an explanatory factor in annual CO2 changes at all (Regression coefficient B = 0.0027, P = 0.863).
Most impressively, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration predicted by the regression equation using sea surface temperatures from 1960-2022 has an extremely high correlation coefficient, r = 0.9995.
“The main factor controlling the annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is sea temperature [sea surface temperature] rather than human emissions. –Ato, 2024
Therefore, it is not only wrong to think that humans are the paradigm for causing changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide; “The theory that global warming and climate change are caused by human emissions of carbon dioxide is also wrong.”
This is not the first study to address the lack of correlation between annual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.
Wang et al. (2013) assessed that CO2 emissions from human activities (fossil fuel burning and land-use changes) account for only about +0.1 to 0.3 PgC/year of annual CO2 concentration changes.
This is approximately “10% of the variation in carbon dioxide growth rate (σ²).”
Jones and Cox (2005) pointed out Changes associated with annual emissions from fossil fuels are unlikely to explain the abnormal CO2 growth rates.
“…these anomalies are unlikely to be explained by a sudden increase in anthropogenic emissions because they are much larger than the annual increase in fossil fuel emissions.”
Dr. Jari Ahlbeck (2009) also assessed the correlation between fossil fuel emissions and increasing CO2 growth rates: “Obviously statistically insignificant.”
Therefore, he excluded this factor when analyzing the mechanism of carbon dioxide variation.
Figures included in the text of the paper reveal Five-year downward trend in annual CO2 emissions (1980-1984: 5.33, 5.17, 5.13, 5.11, 5.29 GtC/year) or a flattening trend (1995-1999: 6.40, 6.53, 6.63, 6.59, 6.57 GtC/year).
Even a detailed analysis from the Carbon Brief blog a few years ago showed that “Global carbon dioxide emissions have been flat, if not slightly down, over the past decade.”
This does not support the conclusion that rising CO2 growth rates are driven by flat or declining human emissions.
Ato Additional notes in the paper address There is a lack of correlation between human methane emissions and the rate of atmospheric methane growth.
Despite the dramatic increase in human methane emissions in recent decades, “Methane concentrations in the atmosphere have declined since the 21st century.”
So not only do we have a lack of correlation between human emissions and annual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (and methane), but annual anthropogenic carbon dioxide (and methane) emissions have even trended flat or even declining in recent decades— this Opposite Interpretive directionality.
Popular photo on Unsplash by Linus Nylund
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