Michael Mann, a prominent climate scientist at Penn State University, announced in April that his team's forecast for the 2024 North Atlantic season projected an “unprecedented” 33 named storms, ranging from 27 to 39. [emphasis, links added]
This prediction turned out to be wrong.
As Hurricane Francine hits the coast Thursday, The total number of named storms is just six, making it one of the quietest hurricane seasons yet. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 30.
It's possible that this season could produce more than 27 named storms, making Mann's prediction accurate, but it's highly unlikely.
A report on Mann's forecast in Penn State Publications states: “Scientists can make successful seasonal forecasts based on the climate information they have, providing a basis for trust in long-term climate predictions, particularly about human-caused warming and its impacts. ” Penn State Today explained.
In the politicized world of climate science, science should be “solved.” Those who are skeptical of climate change predictions are labeled deniers. Thus, failed predictions lead scientists to eat crow.
Mann's predictions, which typically receive media attention from many different outlets, cited how ocean warming and climate change are fueling extreme weather events.
Now, as hurricane season refuses to produce the “turbocharged” extreme weather climate journalists have been warning about, These reporters worried that people would begin to doubt the alerts.
Mann was notorious for suing critics of his work for libel.
this washington post It was noted that this was “the longest period in more than half a century without a late summer cyclone.”
meteorologist, postal The report said they were “battling chaos” and hoped they could still “protect fragile public trust.”
Universities, private entities, and government agencies produce annual forecasts of seasonal conditions, including the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes.
Mann's research group isn't the only university entity whose models predict an above-normal season.
Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU), considered one of the most reliable forecasters, predict the season will be “extremely active.”
Tropical storms are named when wind speeds reach 39 mph or higher. When wind speeds reach 74 mph, the storm is classified as a hurricane. Colorado State University researchers predicted there would be 20 to 26 hurricanes, but there were only four.
The Barcelona Supercomputing Center presents a chart of each organization's prediction model for this season. There are different types of organizations, different model types, different forecasting metrics, and different times of the season when forecasts are released.
Mann's research group – labeled PENN on the Barcelona chart – stood out among the others, But most models predict an unusually high number of named storms, including Colorado State University.
The same goes for hurricanes, although Mann's team doesn't make separate predictions for hurricanes.
Research meteorologist Ryan Maue tells us Just news There are different modeling approaches and different motivations.
For example, universities and government entities have different reasons for making predictions than private companies.
“Sometimes people release seasonal forecasts for certain times of the year to brand and advertise their products,” Moir said.
He explained that trying to average out all of these metrics would not yield a useful metric. It's like how election forecasters weight all polls.
Polls are conducted on different issues, different groups, different agendas, different sample sizes and different margins of error.
Mann's research team publicly releases their past predictions and how they match up to actual predictions. They underperform, usually because their level is too low.
The organization's forecast range for the number of named storms in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is accurate. In 2020, there were 30 named storms, and the team expects 15-24. Like 2019, they predicted 7-13 and ended up with 18.
Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University published a 30-page study explaining why Colorado State University's predictions appear to have failed. Klotzbach still predicts an above-normal season, with more activity in mid-September.
“I'll accept the argument that something in the Atlantic has changed. The Atlantic may have been warmer compared to other tropical regions, and this difference has narrowed. And it's more difficult to generate such tropical cyclones,” Moir said.
These forecasts are used for various purposes. They help people along the coast prepare. They help the insurance industry. They help energy markets because much of the U.S. refining capacity is located on the Gulf Coast.
“This is very important work, and the more eyes on it the better,” Moir said.
Climate science is full of uncertainties and nuances, so it's no surprise that forecasting complex models is a difficult process that requires a lot of trial and error.
Perhaps if climate scientists focused more on improving models rather than fighting the deniers, inaccurate predictions would be widely accepted as part of the process.
Just news Mann was contacted for comment but did not receive a response.
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