This week's award for climate issues will be presented to new scientiststwice. [emphasis, links added]
First, new scientists Tell us that low sea ice levels in Antarctica portend permanent changes. That's because Antarctic sea ice reached near-record lows for the second year in a row, “raising concerns that climate change has triggered a 'regime shift' in the amount of ice formed each year in the Southern Ocean,” they said.
sorry, new scientistsbut it has not become a trend in two years.
Looking at the data, 2023 is indeed a record low, and 2024 is slightly above that, but if you look at the averages of previous years, especially 2011-2020, you will see that there is no trend, just confirmation 2023 and 2024 are outliers.
More data than in the past two years will be needed to signal permanent regime change.
A second example of their false trend-setting is the following question: Is the jet stream moving poleward over the long term, possibly as a result of global warming?
Researchers say it will take until the end of the century to determine whether there is a systematic drift in the Pacific jet stream.
The jet stream is powered by the Earth's rotation and the temperature difference between the tropics and high latitudes. Its polar drift is predicted by some climate models.
according to new scientists, A new analysis shows that the Pacific jet stream has begun to drift poleward, moving 30-80 kilometers per decade.
The paper clearly states that the problem with this study is that the natural range of variability in the jet stream is unknown.even though the data goes back decades, If the past decade is excluded from the analysis, no polar trends are seen.
Researchers say it will take until the end of the century to determine whether there is a systematic drift in the Pacific jet stream.
Something very unusual has been happening in the equatorial Atlantic over the past few months.
The temperature has dropped The fastest in more than 40 years. Climate scientists can't explain the phenomenon because the usual culprit — the trade winds — isn't developing as expected.
It's called “Atlantic Nina.”
With the development of the anti-El Niño phenomenon [tropical] Pacific region, is expected to lower global temperatures. It's a mystery because the equatorial Atlantic Ocean was hot all year long in 2023—in fact, it was the hottest it's been in decades.
Likewise, some people react with alarmism and worry that the climate system is off the rails, but my initial reaction is to wait and see as this may be an example of misinterpreting natural changes.
Popular photo on Unsplash by Paul Carroll
Read more Net Zero Watch
