Even as the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene in the southeastern United States becomes increasingly apparent, the North Atlantic – currently reaching record warm levels in late September and even reaching its highest temperatures in 2023 – has been spawning other devastating storms. Tropical systems of interest, one of which may be the Gulf of Mexico, will have a named storm to watch next week.
Helen had caused enough trouble on her own. As of noon Monday, at least 91 people had died in Helen, according to the Associated Press. Most of the dead were in the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina and the adjoining states of South Carolina and Tennessee. Highways, power and communications remained fragile Monday, and the region's rugged terrain made some areas inaccessible as officials and rescue workers and families struggled to understand the full extent of the disaster and help those in need.
What is already clear is that Helen will ultimately become the deadliest and costliest U.S. storm since at least 2022's Hurricane Ian. Hurricanes, despite the way they behave across the vastly different natural landscape – suggest that it may take days to get immediate relief from the suffering of those affected, let alone assess the full damage of this horrific storm.
Fortunately, most of the tropical activity in the Atlantic will remain safely out to sea this week, and forecast models are somewhat less positive on potential Gulf systems (although not enough to throw it in given the location and time of year) aside and forgotten) ).
Latest Atlantic Storm Kirk is expected to become a large, long-lasting hurricane
Tropical Storm Kirk, the third Atlantic system to be named in the past six days, was named Tropical Storm Kirk at 9:35 a.m. ET on Monday after satellite scatterometer wind data showed sustained winds of up to 45 mph. . The average date of the 11th named Atlantic storm (based on 1991-2020 data) is October 2, so the rate of Atlantic named storm production is ahead of the climatology for the first time since late August.
As of 11 a.m. ET Monday, Kirk was nearly centered in the central tropical Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa, about 690 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. All signs point to Kirk becoming a powerful hurricane as it follows a classic winding path through warmer-than-average waters and out to sea. Over the next five to six days, sea surface temperatures in Kirk should remain around 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), with light to moderate wind shear of 5 to 10 knots and very humid conditions ( Relative humidity is 65% to 70%). Monday morning's SHIPS rapid intensification model gives a 47% chance that Kirk's sustained winds will reach 100 knots (above Category 3 threshold) by Thursday morning, consistent with HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B The enhanced output is similar to models and the National Hurricane Center's forecast for Category 3 Hurricane Kirk to develop late Wednesday night. Kirk could become a major hurricane next week and sweep across the North Atlantic.
Isaac and Joyce are out
Isaac peaked as a Category 2 hurricane in the mid-latitude North Atlantic on Saturday and was declared a post-tropical hurricane at 11 a.m. ET on Monday. Although Isaac's winds are still up to 60 mph, it is moving over increasingly colder waters, and fierce wind shear is pushing its deeper showers and thunderstorms (convection) northeast of its low-level center (see Figure 2 above). Isaac will slowly weaken as it moves into a series of midlatitude storms and fronts, and is expected to dissipate before reaching Ireland.
Meanwhile, short-lived Joyce persisted as a tropical depression at 11 a.m. ET Monday, with winds of 35 mph. Joyce is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Monday night as it drifts north into the central subtropical Atlantic as wind shears push dry air into its circulation.
Another disturbance is in the far eastern tropical Atlantic and has the potential to become a named storm, especially later in the week. In a Tropical Weather Discussion posted at 8 a.m. ET Monday, the NHC gave a 30% and 80% chance of the system developing within 2 days and 7 days, respectively, as the system slowly moves westward to the west-northwest. Ensemble models indicate that the system will not follow in Kirk's footsteps but will move further south, potentially moving further across the main development zone of the tropical Atlantic over the next 1 to 2 weeks, thus swaying the Lesser Antilles Residents will want to monitor their progress (and will have ample time to do so).
Watch the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (again)
Just like Helen did, an area of circulation may develop over the western Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico later this week or even early next week. However, as shown in Fig. As shown in 3 and 4 above, ensemble forecast models give very mixed signals about how strong the system may become and where it may track. Given the time frame of early October, an eventual northward move is possible, and the waters of the western Caribbean and Gulf are certainly warm enough to withstand another powerful hurricane.
It remains to be seen whether upper-level conditions will provide support as they did during Helen, as the upper-level low pressure cutoff in the Mississippi Valley and the dramatic configuration of powerful ridges off the East Coast are not expected to materialize at this time. As shown in the picture. As shown in Figures 3 and 4, most ensemble solutions retain the possibility of a weaker side through next Monday, which is another positive (although these models are not designed to provide clear guidance on storm intensity of).
As of 8 a.m. ET Monday, the NHC believes the potential system has a near-zero chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next two days and a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next seven days.
