The future of the clean energy transition is dark. It’s no secret that there are differences between Republicans and Democrats over our energy future, and they’re broad. [emphasis, links added]
But less well known is the general salience of public opinion about the foundation of America’s energy supply, the importance of rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels, and the issue of climate change.
The results of a new YouGov survey show that the views of a majority of voters differ significantly from those of advocates of a rapid energy transition.
These perspectives constitute the inevitable reality that any transition, any timeline, must face. At the same time, there is a political opportunity here to better align policy priorities with voter preferences.
The survey is part of a broader study by Roger Pielke, Jr. and Ruy Teixeira of the American Enterprise Institute that examines the impact of energy and climate on of scientific understanding compared to the dominant public narrative about these issues, and how both compare to the views of actual voters.
The full research and polling data will be released after the election, but here we present ten of the most interesting findings from our new survey that shed light on the current debate around climate and energy.
1. The “all of the above” approach to energy policy enjoys by far the most support among voters and shows significant stability and collective support among the electorate.
When faced with a choice between three options—a rapid green energy transition, an “all of the above” energy policy, and an emphasis on fossil fuels—U.S. voters across demographics and partisanship strongly favor an “all of the above” approach to energy policy, including oil, natural gas, renewables and nuclear energy.
Less than a quarter support a rapid transition to renewable energy, with support among working-class (non-college) voters falling below one in five. Even among Democrats, just over a third support a quick transition.
2. On extreme weather events, majority of voters reject doomsday narratives found in media and pushed by climate activists.
Most people’s views on trends in extreme weather events are consistent with the latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
they do no Say they have personally observed an increase in hurricanes, floods, droughts or tornadoes that is consistent with current scientific understanding.
Heat waves are an exception, consistent with the IPCC [High confidence in tropical regions where observations allow trend estimation and in most regions in the mid-latitudes, medium confidence elsewhere.]most people reported that they observed an increase in such incidents. [see chart above]
3. U.S. voters are unwilling to pay even a small amount of money to support climate action, and this willingness is rapidly declining as the proposed small costs increase.
when asked If they were willing to support a $1-a-month electricity bill to combat climate change, only 47% said they would, while nearly as many (43%) opposed it. Even at this level, there is more opposition than support among working-class voters.
When the proposed fee was increased to $20, overall voter support plummeted to 26%, with 60% opposed. If it is $40, 19% support and 69% oppose; at $75, the former is 15% and the latter is 72%; at $100, the ratio to pay for such costs to combat climate change is 7:1 (77% to 11%).
4. Voters expect energy transition away from fossil fuels to cause unexpected problems.
About two-thirds thought there might be problems. Follow-up questions indicate Voters are most concerned about the impact on energy and daily commodity prices and about Grid reliability.
Voters are most positive about the impact of the energy transition on energy sector jobs and on air and water quality.
5. Overall, public support for solar and natural gas is much higher than for wind, suggesting that the concept of “renewable energy” masks some important differences.
Of the five energy sources voters were asked to rank, solar was the best in the test. Thirty-eight percent of voters ranked solar energy first. Natural gas ranked second, chosen first by 26% of voters. Nuclear energy is in third place (15% in first place), followed by wind (10%) and coal (6%).
Coal was clearly the least popular energy source, with 38% of respondents ranking it last. Wind and nuclear energy also faced strong opposition, with 19% and 29% respectively ranking the technologies as their least preferred options.
6. For the energy it consumes, cost and reliability are far more important to voters than possible climate impacts.
When given four options, 37% of voters said the cost of the energy they use was most important to them, and 36% said Providing power when they need it is paramount.
Only 19% believed the impact of energy consumption on the climate is most important, and 6% selected the impact on U.S. energy security.
7. In terms of proposals to mitigate the effects of climate change, achieving net-zero emissions as quickly as possible is relatively unimportant to voters.
Asked to consider proposals to reduce the impact of global climate change, Voters are least likely to say “getting the U.S. to net-zero carbon emissions as quickly as possible” is very important to them personally (29%), less than [those who] It is very important to “limit the supervision burden on enterprises” (32%).
Voters are by far the most likely to view keeping consumer costs low (66%) and increasing jobs and economic growth (60%) as very important aspects of climate change mitigation proposals.
The divide among working-class voters is even wider: 71% believe it is important to keep consumer costs lowcompared with 26% who believe it is important to quickly achieve net zero emissions.
8. Climate change as an issue is of low importance to voters.
Voters were asked to evaluate a list of 18 issue areas and assess the priorities for the president and Congress to address in the coming year.
As a “top priority”, addressing global climate change ranks 15th among these 18 areas. Strong support for strengthening the nation's economy, fighting inflation, defending the country from terrorist attacks, and maintaining social security and fiscal soundness. We also strongly support reducing health care costs, dealing with immigration issues, improving the education system, maintaining low energy costs, and reducing the budget deficit, Reduce crime, improve the functioning of the political system, improve employment conditions, strengthen the military, and solve the problems of the poor.
Climate issues ranked only above global trade, drug addiction and race issues.
The Honest Broker is written by climate expert Roger Pielke Jr and is reader-supported. If you value what you read here, please consider subscribing and supporting the work.
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